NBA championship or bust for LeBron, Cavaliers
If a slow start trips up the Cleveland Cavaliers, overreactions will be sure to follow. But the NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint, and LeBron James might not be fit to run either right now.
James has been dealing with back problems, which recently required an anti-inflammatory shot, and he leads a long list of injury concerns for the Cavaliers.
James does plan to be on the floor at the NBA season begins Tuesday with the Cavaliers visiting Chicago. If he’s on the floor, he’s usually a dominant force. However, point guard Kyrie Irving is out until mid-December or January while recovering from a knee injury. In addition, guard Iman Shumpert (wrist) is out about three months, and center Timofey Mozgov (knee) is not at full strength. Kevin Love has returned to action, but he’s off shoulder surgery.
The bottom line is do not expect great things from Cleveland right off the top. It is a marathon, and the Cavaliers are more concerned about finishing strong.
“The Cavaliers don’t have a lot to prove, and I don’t have them rated that high to start the season,” Sportsmemo.com handicapper Erin Rynning said. “I think it will take some time for that team to come together. I don’t see a real sense of urgency with that team.”
Jeff Sherman, oddsmaker at the Westgate sports book, lists Cleveland as the 2-1 favorite to win the NBA championship. But he’s looking at the big picture, not what might unfold in the next two months.
“It looks like the Cavs are going to ease into it. The regular season is the preseason for these guys,” Sherman said. “There’s a chance they will start 0-2 and you will hear people asking, ‘What’s wrong with the Cavs?’ I don’t like much about the East at all, but when you talk about getting to April, the best collection of talent is in Cleveland by a wide margin.”
The margins are slim in the Western Conference, where Golden State and San Antonio are each getting 4-1 title odds, followed by Oklahoma City (7-1) and the Los Angeles Clippers (8-1).
The Warriors, who shot down the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals in June, have the highest regular-season win total (59½) on the board at the Westgate. But repeating is never easy, and the rest of the contenders in the West appear improved.
The Spurs boosted their front line with All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge and veteran David West. The Clippers’ major additions are Lance Stephenson, Paul Pierce and Josh Smith. A healthy and motivated Kevin Durant returns for the Thunder, a team now coached by Billy Donovan, who has a major adjustment to make from the college game.
While the West is a battlefield, the East should be a walk in the park for the Cavaliers. “It’s basically championship or bust for Cleveland,” Rynning said.
A look at the league from a betting perspective:
Eastern Conference
Teams to buy — Boston and Milwaukee are young teams on the rise. Brad Stevens coached the Celtics to a 40-42 record last season, one game behind the Bucks. Both teams are expected to win around 45 games.
“Everybody likes the Celtics, but I’m not sure about that,” Rynning said. “Boston is well coached, but I don’t see the big-time upside with that team. I think the Bucks have a little more upside.”
Boston’s win total has been bet from 41½ to 45½. Sherman said he could see the Celtics “up near 50” wins.
Teams to sell— Philadelphia, which has been rebuilding for what seems like forever, has the league’s lowest win total (21). Atlanta, which went 60-22 last season, is expected to regress with a win total of 50.
“I never have liked Atlanta,” Sherman said. “There’s no marquee player on that team, and I think they overachieved last year.”
Wild-card team — Miami could rise into the East’s top four with a lineup of Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside. But the Heat are off a 37-win season during which Bosh and Wade missed significant time.
“I’ve got the Heat rated about a half-point above average,” Rynning said. “The starting five has never played a minute together. There are a lot of wild cards on that team.”
Western Conference
Teams to buy — Houston has all kinds of offensive firepower, and the Rockets will be in the running again. But how about a team under the radar? Anthony Davis is already one of the league’s top five players, and New Orleans is set to pick up the pace with Alvin Gentry, a Warriors assistant last season, as the new coach. The Pelicans are off a 45-win season, and it won’t take much more to get over their total of 46½.
“The Pelicans are going to be one of the highest scoring teams in the league because they want to get as many possessions as they can in a game,” Sherman said.
Teams to sell — Dallas is in a downward spiral, and the Portland Trail Blazers could be a train wreck. The Los Angeles Lakers’ win total is 28½, and in Kobe Bryant’s likely farewell season, they are a long shot to get the No. 8 playoff seed. At 300-1 odds to win the title, the Lakers have more futures tickets written on them than the Cavaliers at the Westgate.
“That’s insane,” Sherman said. “For the direction that team is going, I honestly think Kobe is stunting their growth. I don’t think any free agents want to play with him. It would be best that he moves on.”
Wild-card team — George Karl faces an intriguing coaching challenge in Sacramento. He has arguably the league’s most talented big man in DeMarcus Cousins, and his new point guard is Rajon Rondo, the definition of a wild card. The Kings could be a playoff team, or they could sink below their win total of 36½.
“I know the public is really high on Sacramento,” Sherman said. “I don’t like the pieces on that team myself. It’s a bunch of misfits. That could go a couple different ways.”
— Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
