Michigan State will have chance to shed doubters
Whether gambling or coaching football, never apologize for getting lucky. Luck turns two ways, and what goes around usually comes around. Without a doubt, Mark Dantonio is the luckiest coach in the world this week.
Michigan State is still undefeated because of a once-in-a-lifetime play that turned a near-certain loss at Michigan into a miraculous win. But don’t hold your breath waiting for Dantonio to say he’s sorry for the Wolverines’ bad beat.
In the college football beauty pageant, every team in the running for the four-team playoff has flaws. The argument over who’s for real and who’s phony is just heating up. Time will sort out most of the mess.
The truth about the Spartans will be revealed in November on their trips to Nebraska and Ohio State.
“Dantonio has got a solid team. But I don’t think Michigan State is one of the top four,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “I don’t know if phony is the exact word. Overvalued and overrated, yes. It’s the ugliest 7-0 team I’ve ever seen.”
The Spartans are not propped up on style points. Michigan State’s only win against the spread was its 27-23 victory at Michigan, which was a 7½-point favorite Saturday. The Wolverines flubbed a punt attempt and a 99.8 percent chance to win in the final 10 seconds.
Under normal circumstances, the Spartans would be a bet-against side this weekend in a classic letdown spot. But their opponent, Indiana, is in a depressing spot after surrendering the final 28 points of the game in a 55-52 loss to Rutgers.
“Michigan State is coming off hitting the lottery,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s a bad spot for both teams.”
The Spartans, 16½-point favorites over the Hoosiers, are on their way to 8-0. It might be ugly, and they are lucky, but none of that matters. Dantonio has a solid team, with a physical defense forming the foundation and senior quarterback Connor Cook adding some flair.
In The Associated Press Top 25, which has become an irrelevant poll and is useless to bettors who value power ratings, Michigan State is No. 7. Utah (6-0) is No. 3, and the Utes are 3½-point underdogs Saturday at unranked Southern California.
Why are the three-loss Trojans, a team under the leadership of an interim coach and off a loss at rival Notre Dame, favored over the nation’s third-ranked team? USC has home-field advantage, and most power ratings (which might be flawed) show Utah is a phony playoff contender.
The line will turn the Utes into popular underdogs with the so-called squares, and it’s usually a bad idea to be on a square ‘dog, especially in the NFL. But that theory was tested three weeks ago in another high-profile game — Alabama as a ‘dog at Georgia — and the squares were sharp for rolling with the Crimson Tide.
“I’m surprised the line is this high. It’s like a pick’em game to me,” Bogdanovich said. “This Utah team is rolling. The spot is not too good for USC.”
I was on Alabama, and I’m on Utah. The Utes, similar in style to Michigan State, are tough defensively and led by a rock-solid coach in Kyle Whittingham. Senior running back Devontae Booker carries the mail for an old-school offense that rarely goes to the air.
USC quarterback Cody Kessler is a senior with big-play weapons and a winning track record, but I’m less impressed the more I watch him. The Trojans have a finesse offense, and the Utes are physical.
“The Trojans are not going to be able to run against Utah, so Kessler is going to be under pressure. I think he’s overrated,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for The Gold Sheet. “Utah looks a lot more solid. But I still think Utah is going to slip once.”
The Utes are a long way from a playoff spot, still needing to beat Washington and Arizona on the road and UCLA in Salt Lake City. And that’s if they can escape Los Angeles with an upset of USC.
My votes for the four playoff teams today would go to Ohio State, Baylor, Clemson and Alabama. But all of those teams are flawed, and strong cases can be made for Texas Christian, Louisiana State, Stanford, Notre Dame, Utah and Michigan State.
The picture becomes clearer each week. Looking much further down the road, USC will be the top coaching vacancy on the market, and there is an attractive opening in the Southeastern Conference with Steve Spurrier stepping down at South Carolina.
Dantonio might be ready to move. It could be the right time to leave the Big Ten, with Urban Meyer overseeing a powerhouse at Ohio State and Jim Harbaugh building one at Michigan. Dantonio graduated from South Carolina and was a defensive back for the Gamecocks.
“The people at Michigan State think USC will make a run at Dantonio. But I think he will listen to South Carolina,” Marshall said. “He can go out with a win over Harbaugh. If he has one more move left in his career, this might be the time to do it. People there I talk to are worried he’s going to listen.”
If Dantonio opts not to punt, the Spartans will get lucky again.
* CLOSING NUMBERS — Michigan State was a winner for me last week, but my luck turned the wrong way. A 2-5 bomb dropped my season record to 23-14-1. This is an ugly card. Here are five plays for today and Saturday (home team in CAPS):
SAN DIEGO STATE (+5) over Utah State; Utah (+3½) over USC; ILLINOIS (+6½) over Wisconsin; Duke (+3) over VIRGINIA TECH; UNR (-7) over Hawaii.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
