McIlroy favored in Masters, but Woods is still top story
Under normal circumstances, Rory McIlroy would be the top story. He’s the No. 1 player in the world, he won the past two majors and he’s the favorite in the Masters, the only major title that has escaped him.
Or how about Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson? Spieth, a 21-year-old rising star, has played phenomenal golf for the past month. He was tied for the lead going into last year’s final round at Augusta National, where Watson won for the second time in three years.
But those guys have been temporarily shoved off to the side this week as the media fawns over golf’s version of Kim Kardashian, who remains popular for no apparent reason.
It’s obvious why Tiger Woods is popular, and it’s not for his prowess on the course in recent times. After his personal life turned into a mess, his game crashed, and most people can’t take their eyes off a train wreck. For the first time in two months, Woods is showing up for a tournament, and everyone seems too excited to see him.
“No one is really talking about Rory now,” said Jeff Sherman, golf oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas sports book. “It’s all Tiger, Tiger, Tiger.”
If the public is fascinated by something, why not play it up? If Tiger gets his tail handed to him again this week, it’s a big story. So Sherman posted four proposition bets connected to Woods’ performance or lack of it.
■ Will Woods finish in the top 20? The favorite is “No” at minus-265.
■ Will Woods make the cut? The favorite is “Yes” at minus-150.
Woods last won a major in 2008, and his last Masters win was in 2005, but he does have a history of good play at Augusta. So, if he’s going to put together four solid rounds somewhere this season, this is a likely spot.
“It has been nothing but pro-Tiger for the last couple days,” Sherman said of the betting action. “The biggest problem for him is he just doesn’t play tournament golf anymore.”
And when he has played tournament golf recently, he has been terrible. In early February, Woods showed up in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, but he played only 11 holes and withdrew citing a bad back.
Before his season debut in Phoenix, Woods said he was feeling good, and then he missed the cut by 12 shots. He has served up a series of lame injury excuses, with Torrey Pines his third withdrawal in his past eight starts.
So, Sherman was compelled to post another prop.
■ Will Woods withdraw after starting? The favorite is “No” at minus-800, and if he does quit, the “Yes” side returns plus-550.
The prop for Woods’ first-round score is 73½, and it will be interesting to see how he starts Thursday, when rain is in forecast in Georgia. If it’s wet, the course will play longer, a factor favoring the biggest hitters off the tee, and Tiger is not one of the biggest hitters anymore.
The betting public is lining up to support Spieth, who is long off the tee, precise around the greens and No. 1 in the Westgate’s ticket count. Spieth and Watson, a lefty who drives bombs, are each at 10-1 on the Westgate’s odds board.
Because of his red-hot current form and confidence level on this course, I like Spieth’s chances to be in the hunt Sunday afternoon. I bet him early in the year at 20-1 before he got too hot. I bet Watson in his wins in 2012 and 2014, but held off this time and might play his adjusted odds (hopefully at a better price) after the first or second rounds.
I took a shot at 30-1 on Rickie Fowler, who finished in the top five in all four majors last year, and another shot at 20-1 on Phil Mickelson, who is in decent form and has the advantage of being a lefty at Augusta.
McIlroy is getting 6-1 odds, but in six Masters, a tie for eighth last year is his best finish.
Sherman’s top pick is Jason Day, who won at Torrey Pines and is seeking his first major title. Day is at 12-1 odds, and Sherman’s long-shot picks are Keegan Bradley (50-1) and Ryan Palmer (80-1).
“Day’s healthy now, and he’s got a win under his belt,” Sherman said. “He’s got a game that suits the course. He’s got the right attitude, and this tournament means a lot to him.”
Another green jacket would mean a lot to Woods, but at 40-1 he’s a long shot to remain a significant story by Sunday.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
