Like Favre, NFL wagering never fades away
Three months ago, Brett Favre limped off the field after throwing an interception that helped launch the New Orleans Saints to the Super Bowl. Since that day, Favre has disappeared to the obscurity of his Mississippi farm.
Will he return to quarterback the Minnesota Vikings for another season? That question will be answered this summer, but oddsmakers are entertaining it now.
“If I had to bet on it, I would say Favre is coming back,” Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “The Vikings are really close to winning the Super Bowl.”
The NFL — much like memories of your favorite ex-girlfriend — never fades far from consciousness. It is the life-support system for the sports books, providing new betting opportunities even in April.
The regular-season schedule was announced Tuesday, the first round of the draft was overhyped Thursday, and Week 1 wagering lines will be posted at the Hilton by Saturday.
New Orleans hosts Minnesota in the Sept. 9 opener, and assuming the 40-year-old Favre decides he’s not ready to fade away, Drew Brees and the Saints will open as about 4-point favorites over the Vikings.
In this burgeoning era of in-progress wagering, more bettors are searching for instant gratification, so placing a bet that cannot be cashed for several months is not high on the priority list.
Still, the NFL is an interesting diversion this week, something to discuss with friends when you’re tired of debating the impact of the Iceland volcano or the quality of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff.
“What happens is, people come in here to grab sheets, and then they grab the Week 1 odds. You definitely hear people talking about it,” Kornegay said. “You won’t see much line movement. We do have action that trickles in, but it won’t really warm up until the preseason.”
The staff at the Venetian sports book got a jump on the competition by being the first to post NFL regular-season win totals and assorted propositions.
The Indianapolis Colts top the league with a win total of 11½, followed by the Super Bowl champion Saints at 10½. The Vikings’ win total is 9, a number that seems low if Favre reappears.
It is worth noting that the Venetian oddsmakers opened the New England Patriots as even-money favorites to win the AFC East. The New York Jets are at 7-5 odds, although Rex Ryan believes the Jets should be the favorites.
What develops in the NFL Draft will have little impact on any futures odds or Week 1 lines.
The St. Louis Rams selected Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford first overall, but the Rams’ power rating is just about as weak as it was without him. The Denver Broncos’ win total will not be adjusted because they added Tim Tebow.
The first round of the draft was mostly uneventful until Tebow’s future became the topic.
ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. said he’s “still skeptical” that Tebow can be more than a gimmick quarterback. Jon Gruden, a Super Bowl-winning former coach, shot back that Tebow is a “big-time human being. … I love this pick.”
Two teams that did improve immediately were the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions. The Cowboys traded up to No. 24 to steal Dez Bryant, a dynamic wide receiver. The Lions wisely snagged dominant defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh at No. 2.
I also approve of the picks made by the Indianapolis Colts (Texas Christian defensive end Jerry Hughes) and San Diego Chargers (Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews).
Kiper was irked after the San Francisco 49ers used the 17th pick on Mike Iupati, a guard from Idaho, over former Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen.
Slipping out of the first round were Clausen and Colt McCoy from Texas. But that’s no crushing blow for either quarterback. Favre and Brees each were second-round picks.
After his summer vacation, bet on Favre to dramatically announce his return to the Vikings for one last run at the Super Bowl.
That would be good news for the NFL, the only league that stays significant at the sports books in the middle of the offseason.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
