Lakers have ingredients to go over 62-win total

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By early December, you can bet Kobe Bryant will be asked about the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of winning 70 games. It’s a question that needs not be asked until February or March, if it’s an issue at all.

But now is the time to start speculating for wagering purposes, so here’s a more relevant question: Will the Lakers win at least 62 games?

Not even Bryant knows for sure, and he shrugged off talk of 60-plus wins, but he’s surely setting expectations of that type.

"It’s tough, but you’ve just got to get up to play every night, and you’ve got to have a couple lucky breaks here and there," Bryant said after the Lakers beat the Sacramento Kings 98-92 Thursday in a preseason game at the Thomas & Mack Center.

"You try to stay healthy, play the right way and hopefully be clicking on all cylinders when the playoffs come around. Motivation is not very hard with this group."

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book recently posted NBA regular-season win totals, with the defending champion Lakers (62) atop the list and the Kings (241/2) at the bottom.

The Lakers were 65-17 last season, and they are in position to be better this season. Ron Artest adds defensive toughness, young center Andrew Bynum’s bad right knee is stronger, and Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher return.

Except for Trevor Ariza’s departure to Houston, the championship team is loaded and intact, and coach Phil Jackson is still on the bench.

Bryant is a leader who won’t allow a letdown. As long as he stays healthy — and he has started 82, 82, 77 and 80 games the past four seasons — the Lakers won’t lose often.

Get ready for a fast start, too, because the Lakers play 17 of their first 21 games at home, and most of the opponents are weak.

"The Lakers scored a coup when they were able to sign Artest. I don’t believe Artest will have a Terrell Owens-type negative effect on the team by causing dissension or locker-room problems," Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Jim Kruger said. "Artest gives the Lakers one of the best frontcourts in the league, assuming Bynum stays healthy and plays to his abilities.

"Re-signing Odom is also a huge factor in making the Lakers the without-a-doubt favorite in the Western Conference. Over the past four seasons, the conference winner has topped 62 wins six times out of eight possibilities. With the Lakers, the only side I’d take would be the ‘over.’ However, a team going over a high number like that has more risk than I want to take."

Aside from drama and potential distractions, if the Lakers have a weak link, it’s at point guard with Fisher and Jordan Farmar.

Also, Kruger pointed out the Lakers "have a difficult situational schedule" with more back-to-back games (19) — games played without a day’s rest against an opponent with rest — than any other team. Only one of those 19 games is at home. In the past five seasons, teams playing without a day off against a rested team have won only 39.9 percent straight up. In that situation on the road, that percentage dips to 35.8.

The bottom line is bet the Lakers over 62 wins or skip it.

"The oddsmakers expect the biggest improvements from last year in the Washington Wizards, Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder," Kruger said. "The only double-digit drop in the posted season win numbers is with the Houston Rockets."

Artest jumped off the Rockets’ ship, and they have lost Yao Ming for the season and Tracy McGrady for at least a large portion of it.

Kruger recommended betting the Portland Trail Blazers over 431/2 wins last season, and they finished with 54. He’s touting Brandon Roy and the Blazers to go over 521/2 this season.

"Portland stands the best shot at beating the Lakers to win the Western Conference," said Kruger, whose Web site is Vegassportsauthority.com.

"A team I would avoid playing ‘over’ is the Miami Heat due to the enormous dependency on the stellar play, and good health, of superstar Dwyane Wade.

"Washington is improved, and Gilbert Arenas is currently healthy, but can the Wizards improve last year’s record by 23 games? Interestingly, last season saw three teams improve their prior season wins by 20 or more. In each of the four years before that, only one team topped the 20-game improvement mark."

• CLOSING NUMBERS — After a 3-3 showing last week, here are my six college football picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

UNR (-8) over UTAH STATE; California (-31/2) over UCLA; IDAHO (-71/2) over Hawaii; CENTRAL FLORIDA (+14) over Miami; Washington (+61/2) over ARIZONA STATE; UNLV (+161/2) over Utah.

Contact sports betting reporter and columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.