Kyle Busch backers feel right at home
If there’s such a thing as home-track advantage, Kyle Busch might have it this weekend. Of course, Busch has an edge on most tracks because he’s one of NASCAR’s masters.
But he grew up near Las Vegas Motor Speedway and was making high-speed left turns around the place when most kids his age still were learning how to parallel park.
Busch won in Las Vegas two years ago, and he’s getting plenty of betting support to win again Sunday in the Kobalt Tools 400 Sprint Cup race.
This is not the Daytona 500, the sport’s glamour event. This is bigger, at least to the sports books. It’s the only week of the year when NASCAR seriously matters to the books.
"It’s huge. It’s massive," Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said. "The total amount of tickets we write, Daytona is nothing compared to this."
It still doesn’t compare to the weekly NFL frenzy or the college basketball hurricane that’s about to hit. But after the Super Bowl and before the NCAA Tournament, this is the ideal time for a race.
Make that two races. The Nationwide Sam’s Town 300 is Saturday, and Busch is the 2-1 favorite.
I don’t know many people who bet NASCAR and are sharp enough to turn a profit on it, but VegasInsider.com analyst Micah Roberts is one. And Roberts is optimistic about Busch’s chances in his hometown.
"I like Kyle a lot. He’s just the best," Roberts said. "He’ll probably win Saturday’s race, and that always gets him extra fired up to try to complete the sweep for the weekend."
A split would be OK. I bet Busch to win the Nationwide event and also backed him at 6-1 odds in the Sprint Cup race.
Keep in mind, I’m not encouraging this type of NASCAR wagering. It’s just something to do once a year for entertainment, like watching a Charlie Sheen interview.
Roberts’ top plays for Sunday’s race will be on driver matchups and propositions, and he’ll wait to finalize those plays.
Miller posted 18 matchups and 15 props at the Golden Nugget on Thursday, and said, "I just put these things up, and I’m getting hit on them left and right."
Not all sports books roll out the props and matchups for this race, but the Las Vegas Hilton, Lucky’s and MGM Mirage also treat it as red-carpet occasion. The Cal Neva book at Binion’s posted an interesting prop on Danica Patrick’s finish position in the Sam’s Town 300. The over/under is 19.
Busch has been dominant in Nationwide races. He won wire to wire at Phoenix last week, holding off a late charge by Carl Edwards.
Jimmie Johnson has been the top dog on the Sprint Cup circuit and in Las Vegas, where he has won four of the past six Cup races. So maybe it’s Johnson who owns the home-track edge this weekend.
But Busch is bringing the same car he used for a runner-up finish at Charlotte last year, and Roberts calls that "good news" because Charlotte and Las Vegas are almost identical tracks.
Because of a heavy ticket count on Busch, he was lowered to 9-2 favorite status at the Golden Nugget on Thursday. Johnson and Jeff Gordon were at 5-1, followed by Edwards at 7-1. For what it’s worth, Busch was the fastest in Thursday’s practice.
Roberts said Kurt Busch, at about 15-1 odds, is not a wise wager because he has been "snakebitten" in his hometown.
"It looks like there’s a lot of better candidates out there," said Roberts, who named Kevin Harvick (12-1), Clint Bowyer (20-1) and Jamie McMurray (25-1) as a few of those candidates.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is said to remain NASCAR’s most popular driver, even if he’s nowhere near the most successful.
Earnhardt, who qualified fourth at Las Vegas last year but faded to finish 16th, is riding a 95-race skid without a win. Still, he has been bet from 40-1 to 25-1 odds this week.
"No matter what price I put Earnhardt up at, they bet him. I just don’t know why they keep betting him every week," Miller said. "Sooner or later, he’s got to win one. If he ever wins a race, I’m in trouble."
Every Earnhardt bet seems to be for entertainment purposes only, similar to a World Series wager on the Chicago Cubs. Two plays on Kyle Busch at least offer a fighting chance.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
NASCAR WEEKENDSchedule of events
Driver appearances
