Kershaw in control, but Dodgers not unbeatable
A dysfunctional element exists within the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team resembling an uncontrollable kindergarten class at times. But amid the chaos there is Clayton Kershaw, who is cool and in control.
Kershaw is the closest thing to a lock baseball bettors can find. He’s almost as unbeatable as the Internal Revenue Service. Bet against him and the left-hander will lift your wallet.
Still, even with the best pitcher in the major leagues, and a No. 2 starter in Zack Greinke who is good enough to be an ace, the Dodgers will be walking a tightrope on the way to the World Series. If Kershaw slips, the team will fall with him.
Four postseason games are in the books, two teams are eliminated, and there is no single favorite.
“This seems so wide open, any of the eight teams could win it,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “You look at the Dodgers, and you like what they’ve got with Kershaw and Greinke. But to me, something is wrong there, their chemistry isn’t there.”
At the Westgate Las Vegas book, the Dodgers were among four teams posted as 9-2 favorites to win the World Series going into Thursday’s games. The Washington Nationals were the other in the National League, and their pitching and chemistry are there.
The Nationals, my pick to win the NL, are an easy team to get behind because of the Las Vegas connections. Matt Williams, a UNLV star long ago, is in his first season as manager, and outfielder Bryce Harper started here as a teen phenom.
Washington is not just my sentimental favorite. Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann could match Kershaw and Greinke at the top of the rotation, and the Nationals rate slightly better in most other areas.
“I’m sort of rooting for the Nationals, who have never won it and have got a local flavor,” Bogdanovich said. “For no particular reason, I just like their team.”
Micah Roberts, an analyst for “The Linemakers” on SportingNews.com and a former bookmaker, is sticking with the Dodgers. One reason is outfielder Matt Kemp, who started hitting late in the season and stopped feuding with teammate Yasiel Puig.
“Kershaw and Greinke are the best one-two combo, but the Nationals’ rotation is the best in baseball and they come in hotter than anyone. It looks like the Dodgers are going to have their hands full,” Roberts said. “I’m waffling a bit.
“The Dodgers’ edge rests with their offense, and several key hitters are hot right now. Kemp hit nine homers in September and has finally kept his mouth shut and played ball, and in the process has been left in the lineup because he’s producing. This offense, not the pitching, is why I have them winning the World Series.”
In five September starts each, Strasburg (3-1, 1.13 ERA), Zimmermann (4-0, 1.32) and Doug Fister (4-1, 1.87) were red hot, with Zimmermann throwing a no-hitter Sunday on the final day of the regular season.
Of course, projecting that matchup assumes the Nationals will get by San Francisco and the Dodgers will knock out St. Louis. The Cardinals are no easy out, especially because of the starter opposing Kershaw today in Los Angeles.
Adam Wainwright has been better than Kershaw lately. In his past three starts, Wainwright worked 24 innings, allowed one run and totaled 23 strikeouts and three walks.
“Wainwright is a big-time pitcher catching a big price,” Bogdanovich said, explaining why some of us might play with fire and consider wagering against Kershaw as a 2-1 favorite.
And the counterpoint is the Dodgers are 23-4 in Kershaw’s starts this season.
“It’s fair to say Kershaw never has been better and his pitcher rating is at an all-time high,” Roberts said. “Look for Kershaw and Wainwright to be at their best and the game to stay under the tiny total of 5½. The offensive disparity between the two teams give the Dodgers a huge edge, and maybe enough to where laying minus-180 to win the series is a bargain.”
The American League teams posted at 9-2 World Series odds were Detroit and the Los Angeles Angels, but the Tigers will drop a notch after losing the opener of their best-of-5 series at Baltimore.
In October, it’s about who’s hot, and the Nationals are a well-rounded team with the best shot to burn the Dodgers, even if Kershaw remains a cash machine.
x CLOSING NUMBERS — For most bettors, the baseball playoffs take a back seat to football. My college plays last week went 3-3, putting the season record at 18-14. Here are seven plays for today and Saturday (home team in CAPS):
FRESNO STATE (-3) over San Diego State; NOTRE DAME (+2½) over Stanford; TENNESSEE (-2½) over Florida; MISSISSIPPI STATE (-2½) over Texas A&M; COLORADO (+6½) over Oregon State; RUTGERS (-2½) over Michigan; Unlv (+10½) over SAN JOSE STATE.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
