Jordan Spieth’s mastery of Augusta annoys most bettors
Everything about Jordan Spieth seems likable. He’s a personable and ultra-talented 22-year-old who shows no signs of being an egomaniac. But he’s putting a majority of golf bettors in a bad position.
Most of us have to root against him this weekend. We will feel a little bad about it, sort of like booing Santa Claus or unleashing a dog to chase the mailman, but we will do it anyway.
Spieth’s only annoying quality is that he’s too good. Just when it appeared safe to bet against him, he went out Thursday and fired a 6-under 66 to take a two-stroke lead after the first round of the Masters. He’s the defending champion, and he has held the lead after the past five rounds at Augusta National, so he’s not about to disappear.
“We took so little action on Spieth it’s unbelievable,” said Matthew Holt, vice president for CG Technology sports books. “No one bets the single-digit guys. People want the huge payoff. Plus, Spieth has not been playing that well.”
Most sharp golf bettors try to beat the favorite on the futures board. In this case, Jason Day was the favorite, but only slightly over Spieth and Rory McIlroy. All three were posted at single-digit odds. Most of us hunt for longer shots in the 20-1 to 50-1 range.
Spieth had been uncharacteristically shaky in 2016. After a win in Hawaii in early January, he tied for 21st at Pebble Beach, missed the cut at Torrey Pines and recorded no top-10 finishes in his next four tournaments before the Masters.
No player has repeated as Masters winner since Tiger Woods in 2002. It had been 50 years since the defending champ held the outright lead after the first round, and that was Jack Nicklaus in 1966.
So, history indicated this was not the week to bet on Spieth. But he’s so good, it’s annoying to those of us who did not bet on him. When adjusted odds went up Thursday night, Spieth was the 8-5 favorite at CG Technology and William Hill books.
“Spieth is a big favorite,” Holt said, “but Rory is right there.”
No player is infallible, and the weather at Augusta this weekend is expected to be tricky and windy. Majors are not won on Day One, but they are lost.
Rickie Fowler, a popular bet at 15-1, shot himself out of it with an 80. Adam Scott, a former UNLV standout who won the Masters in 2013, carded a 76 and faces a formidable challenge in just making the cut. Bubba Watson, who slipped on the green jacket in 2012 and 2014, hit the water on the way to a 75.
Nothing was more painful than watching Ernie Els, the affable South African, six-putt from close range for a quintuple-bogey 9 on the first hole. If I did that, I would throw my putter in a pond and implode. Els kept his cool and actually played well for the rest of his round.
Day’s meltdown was equally surprising. He was 5 under through nine and 5 over on the back nine, dropping his adjusted odds to 10-1.
“I felt bad for Day. He pretty much had one bad hole and ruined a hard day’s work,” Pregame.com handicapper Brady Kannon said.
Day is too talented to be counted out. And McIlroy, four shots behind Spieth, still is in it. Day and McIlroy have early tee times today before the wind is expected to pick up. Spieth will play in tougher conditions in the afternoon.
“I think Rory looks really good, and he’s got an advantageous draw,” Kannon said. “It will be interesting for Spieth. I think the guys who go out late (Friday) are in for a rude awakening. I would be surprised if he can maintain 6 under.”
A huge payoff is still possible with some long shots in the picture. Danny Lee, two strokes out of the lead, teed off at 125-1 odds and is down to 35-1. Shane Lowry, also two back, went off at 150-1. Lowry is an Irishman with the physique of a professional beer drinker, so it’s tough to root against him.
Also root for Scott Piercy of Las Vegas. Piercy, four strokes back, went off at 250-1 and has been adjusted to 100-1.
My best bet in contention is Justin Rose, who closed at 20-1 and is 3 under. Phil Mickelson, the public’s most popular play, bogeyed the 18th to finish even and should be hanging around for the weekend.
There are plenty of Spieth supporters out there. Not everyone tries to beat the favorites.
For those who bet on Fowler, Scott or Watson — or did not bet on Spieth — you can stay in the game with adjusted odds and live wagering options this weekend.
Spieth might be the nicest guy in golf, but when there is money on the line, there’s nothing wrong with rooting against him.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
