It’s not Mariota’s fault Oregon’s defense can’t stop anybody
Slowly but surely, some of the mystique surrounding Oregon disappears. It’s no knock on quarterback Marcus Mariota, who might be the best player at his position in college football.
Mariota is not leading the best team in the nation, though, and neither is UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley.
Ten days ago, the Bruins and Ducks were shining bright in the middle of the playoff picture. By late Saturday afternoon, after a Pacific-12 Conference elimination game in Pasadena, Calif., the sun will set behind the San Gabriel Mountains and on one team’s national title dreams.
“I think UCLA will find a way to win this game,” said Ed Salmons, Westgate Las Vegas sports book manager.
Two weeks ago, Salmons called it a “total fraud.” He could have been talking about any Paris Hilton song, but he actually was referring to this Oregon team and how it misses everything about former coach Chip Kelly, who ditched the Ducks for the NFL two years ago.
It’s not the same unstoppable Oregon offense that demoralized defenses and covered spreads with ease. But Mariota, who has completed 71.1 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions, is obviously not the problem, and the offense is not solely to blame.
“Their defense is awful,” Salmons said. “And Oregon can’t run the ball and can’t protect the quarterback.”
The Bruins’ issues are similar. Hundley was sacked 10 times last Saturday in a 30-28 loss to Utah at the Rose Bowl. Just as weak as UCLA’s offensive line was its defense, which was gashed for 242 rushing yards.
Two days earlier, Oregon was a 23-point home favorite in a 31-24 loss to Arizona. In their past nine regular-season games under coach Mark Helfrich, the Ducks are 1-8 against the spread, losing outright three times as double-digit favorites.
“Oregon has been a real money burner, a very poor point-spread team for a while. So I can’t back Oregon,” The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “To me, it’s time to start looking at Helfrich. I don’t like the way he acts on the sideline. He’s not into the game like Kelly was, and I don’t like the way they sequence their play-calling.
“I’ve been a little disappointed with the Bruins. I think their team has too much Hollywood in it. On defense, guys are trying to make highlight-reel plays. There are flaws both ways, but I lean a little bit to UCLA.”
Kelly was a tough act to follow, and Helfrich is not doing a great job of it. He could be sitting on a hot seat with another loss, considering the Ducks have not dropped back-to-back games in the same season since 2007.
Hundley can probably trade shots with Mariota in a wild game, which is the norm in the Pac-12, the most entertaining conference in the country.
UCLA has two edges that could prove significant, one being the home field and the other being Jim Mora, the better coach with NFL experience. With the season on the line for both 4-1 teams, look for the Bruins to find a way as underdogs, with the line opening at 3 and dropping to 2½.
A week after Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas A&M got knocked off along with the Pac-12 powers, who’s next?
Auburn and Florida State appear to be the nation’s top two teams, but only one will get tested this weekend. The Tigers are 3-point favorites at Mississippi State in the latest huge game in the Southeastern Conference.
If Auburn escapes Starkville, Miss., it still must face South Carolina and Texas A&M at home and Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama on the road. After that, if the Tigers are lucky, there is the SEC title game.
“That schedule is just insane,” Salmons said. “I think Notre Dame would have no chance if they played Auburn.”
I’ll argue the Fighting Irish (5-0) have a shot against the SEC’s elite and also against Florida State, mainly because Everett Golson has developed into a big-time quarterback and Notre Dame’s defense is no joke.
The Irish are in a lookahead spot Saturday, hosting North Carolina with a road game against the Seminoles on deck. The Notre Dame-Florida State winner is a good bet to reach the four-team playoff in January.
It’s possible a two-loss team might reach the playoff, but only if that two-loss team is from the SEC. The Oregon-UCLA winner will have to run the table to get there, and the loser will be out of luck.
■ CLOSING NUMBERS — If I released games as a tout, none of these would be five-star plays this week. Consider these games rated with two or three stars. I went 4-3 last week, running the season record to 22-17. Here are eight plays for today and Saturday (home team in CAPS):
NEW MEXICO (+4) over San Diego State; Texas Christian (+8½) over BAYLOR; Louisiana State (-1½) over FLORIDA; UCLA (+2½) over Oregon; ARIZONA (+3) over Southern California; Louisville (+9½) over CLEMSON; TEXAS A&M (-2) over Mississippi; MICHIGAN (-1) over Penn State.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
