If Deflate-gate revenge is Tom Brady’s game, then he’s winning a blowout
Three months into the season, the most overblown controversy in NFL history has passed. Tom Brady is putting up terrific numbers and the New England Patriots are torching every obstacle in their path, all while using properly inflated footballs.
If Brady is on some sort of Deflate-gate revenge tour, he deserves credit for executing it perfectly. Even the Patriots’ haters have to admit that.
Did he deserve punishment for cheating and lying about it? Of course. But the league and commissioner Roger Goodell carried the case too far, and Goodell ended up the biggest loser. John Grisham might write a book about it someday.
It will be interesting to see how the story ends. As of now, the Patriots are 10-0 and set to be favored in every game the rest of the way. If their winning streak ends, it most likely will happen in Denver on Sunday.
Peyton Manning still is out, which figures to improve the Broncos’ chances. Denver has the league’s No. 2 scoring defense (18.3 points per game) despite being frequently backed into a corner while Manning threw a league-high 17 interceptions.
Brock Osweiler stepped in last week and was an upgrade in the Broncos’ 17-15 win at Chicago. Osweiler completed 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns. The key number: zero interceptions.
The difference this weekend is Osweiler will be playing chess with New England coach Bill Belichick, the mastermind behind the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (18.2 points per game). Osweiler’s second career start is unlikely to go as smoothly as his first.
Brady has issues to deal with, too, because his receiving corps is decimated. Julian Edelman is out with a foot injury, and Danny Amendola is hobbling on a bad knee and questionable to play. Still, even when stars fall around him, Brady finds ways to make things work. If his reliable little receivers are gone, the Patriots plug in new ones, and Brady always can count on big tight end Rob Gronkowski.
The Brady-Manning duel looks like a thing of the past. Maybe it will resurface one more time in the playoffs, yet while Manning is fading fast, Brady is leading the NFL in passing yards (3,320) and has 25 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Osweiler beat the Bears, but this is Brady and Belichick. Sharp money probably will be on the Broncos, but I need to see the upset to believe it, so I’ll play the Patriots as 3-point favorites.
Four more plays for Week 12 (home team in CAPS):
* Saints (+3) over TEXANS: The bye week came when New Orleans desperately needed it. Saints coach Sean Payton dumped defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and replaced him with Dennis Allen. The change should provide an immediate boost. Drew Brees, completing a league-high 69.5 percent of his passes, will test a Houston defense that has improved during a three-game win streak. Brees is the type of quarterback to bounce back off an ugly loss.
* Giants (-3) over REDSKINS: Eli Manning is usually better away from home, and he has not had many problems with the Washington defense lately. The Giants have won and covered the past five meetings with the Redskins. In his past seven road games, Manning is 6-1 against the spread. With a win, the Giants (5-5) can rise above the mess that is the NFC East and take control of the division.
* Dolphins (+3½) over JETS: The Jets have lost four of their past five games. Ryan Fitzpatrick (19 of 39 with two interceptions) was terrible against the Texans last week. To make matters worse, cornerback Darrelle Revis is sidelined with a concussion. A trend makes Miami look good – the road team has won seven straight in this series.
* Steelers (+4) over SEAHAWKS: Pittsburgh’s offense is elite when Ben Roethlisberger is healthy and pulling the trigger. Russell Wilson is slumping in Seattle. The tale of two quarterbacks favors the underdog. The Seahawks can bully the 49ers, but their defense will have a lot of problems with Roethlisberger and his loaded weapons.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 29-23-3
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow: @mattyoumans247
