Fear Brees? Trends say 49ers live home ‘dog
Fear will be a factor for millions of people this weekend. Many of them are football bettors who are afraid to wager against quarterback Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints’ rocket-powered offense.
The fear of spotting Tim Tebow two touchdowns will strike others.
Today, it’s the fear of Friday the 13th — known as paraskevidekatriaphobia — that affects an estimated 20 million people in the United States.
But let’s forget superstitions and focus on the Saints, who are favored at San Francisco in the NFC playoffs Saturday. The line moved from 3½ to 4 on Thursday at most Las Vegas sports books. Respect for the Saints, who have won nine games in a row, is warranted.
But Scott Kellen, a handicapper who concentrates his efforts on beating the NFL, is not paralyzed by a fear of Brees.
“New Orleans comes in red hot, destroying teams in its wake. The Saints bring an offense that has topped 30 points in 12 of their 17 games,” Kellen said. “In the five games they did not score 30 or more points, they were all road games, and they have not scored more than 26 points in five of their last seven road games.
“The two games they topped 30 points in were against Carolina, which had a horrible defense, and Minnesota, which was playing with numerous injuries in the secondary. The 49ers bring the best defense the Saints will see this season. The 49ers will have to score, but they have done that all season at home, scoring 20 or more points in every home game, including 23 or more in six of eight games.”
Kellen (SixthSenseSports.com) won the $48,000 “Cantor Football Showdown” this season. The tournament included 16 handicappers, but Kellen was the only one to stick strictly to NFL plays, and he finished 16-11-1 against the spread.
He’s playing one underdog (San Francisco) and one favorite (Baltimore minus-7½) this weekend.
Brees lit up the Detroit Lions in the wild-card round, but he also got away with a few careless throws, and that game was in his Superdome comfort zone. The 49ers’ defense, which had 23 interceptions, presents a stickier proposition.
“When I look at these teams with year-to-date stats — home/away stats, home/away stats against playoff teams, etc. — I get either New Orleans by three points or San Francisco winning the game outright by about two points,” Kellen said. “When I break it down by the Saints on the road against good defenses and the 49ers at home against good offenses, I do get New Orleans by nine points, but that is the only scenario, with limited samples, that points to any kind of value on the Saints in this game.
“San Francisco comes in having won but not covered its last two games. Teams in the playoffs (that) have not covered for two straight games are 40-19-1 ATS. Home ‘dogs perform well in the first two rounds of the playoffs, having gone 12-5 in the wild-card round and 3-0 in the divisional round.”
According to Kellen, road favorites in the first two rounds are 2-10 ATS if they allow more than 17 points per game on the season. Home ‘dogs in the first two rounds are 9-2 ATS if they allow fewer than 20 points per game for the season.
“In other words, road favorites who do not have a great defense or home ‘dogs that do have a great defense are profitable plays in the first two rounds of the playoffs,” he said.
Prior to Jim Harbaugh taking over as coach, San Francisco was tough to beat at home. The 49ers have played 15 true home games since the beginning of last year, losing only once by more than three points.
“Can the Saints roll in this game? Yes, because their offense is so efficient, and the 49ers tend to bog down in the red zone,” Kellen said. “But value, history and situations all point to a San Francisco cover and possible victory. San Francisco 27, New Orleans 24.”
The Saints are attracting 85 percent of the side bets, according to VegasInsider.com. In the other NFC showdown, the New York Giants are getting approximately 75 percent of the action as 7½-point underdogs Sunday at Green Bay. The line opened at 8½.
The wagering has been split down the middle on Denver-New England. The line opened at 14, a number that Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert called “borderline absurd,” and it’s now sitting at 13½.
Tom Brady and the Patriots, as 7-point road favorites, shot down Tebow and the Broncos 41-23 in the first meeting on Dec. 18. The books and the bettors are welcoming Saturday’s rematch, which is appropriately scheduled for prime time.
“It’s a hell of a game, and there’s a lot of interest,” Colbert said. “The Tebow factor is pretty big. People like to bet on his games, either for or against him. I expect the Broncos to be able to stay in the game. I do think this number is too high.”
The other AFC matchup looks like a snoozer, and Kellen’s fearless prediction is the Ravens will put the Houston Texans to sleep.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
