‘Everybody likes Bubba,’ maybe too much, in PGA Championship
Obviously, it’s cool to be hip and trending. Most people would prefer that as opposed to being hated and vilified. But there is a danger in becoming too popular, and Bubba Watson is walking that proverbial tightrope this week.
Jason Day is toeing the same line. Jordan Spieth crossed the popularity boundaries earlier this year, and that’s not changing anytime soon.
“Everybody likes Bubba,” said Jeff Sherman, golf oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas sports book, “and it’s obvious why they do.”
If a player or team gets too popular with the betting public, a contrarian will look the other way. The players attracting the most money in the PGA Championship are — in order — Spieth, Watson and Day.
That is concerning, considering I pegged Watson as my pick to win the PGA coming into the week. Each day, he has been gaining support. The admiration for him is no secret. As handicappers, we are seeing the same things. He often wears a pink shirt and is not a guy you would pick to win a street fight, but in terms of current form and course form, Watson jumps off the page.
Spieth is the 6-1 favorite, a status he deserves, at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin. He won the year’s first two majors and narrowly missed taking the third. There is no reason to think he will fade into the background in the final one. But sharp bettors rarely race to the window to play the favorite in an elite field, especially at single-digit odds.
“Spieth is always supported,” Sherman said, “but it’s hard to take 6-1 in a field with so many golfers who are capable.”
Watson is more than capable. He finished second in his past two tournaments, and when the PGA was contested at Whistling Straits in 2010, he also finished second after losing in a playoff. His current form is outstanding, as is his history on this course.
But in the past 15 days, Watson’s odds have moved from 20-1 to 12-1. Sherman said the Westgate recently took a wager on Watson at 15-1 to win $50,000. I bet Watson at the same odds, but it was a conservative wager, simply because he’s too popular this week.
Watson is a two-time Masters winner. Day is one of the best players to never win a major, but the talented Australian won at Torrey Pines near San Diego and in Canada this season. He posted top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open and British Open. Day, also at 12-1 odds, has been knocking on the door in majors and is probably going to kick it in soon.
“I think Day has a big shot to win the tournament,” said Brian Blessing, Las Vegas radio host and handicapper (Sportsbookradio.com). “The longest hitters should have an edge.”
Whistling Straits, a links-style course featuring elevation changes on the western shores of Lake Michigan, sets up well for players who launch bombs off the tee. Day, Watson and Dustin Johnson fit the profile. Johnson (15-1) has burned his backers twice this season on similar courses, however. He blew an opportunity to win the U.S. Open on the 72nd green and held the second-round lead in the British only to finish 75-75 in another mental meltdown.
Sherman (@golfodds on Twitter) said his top play is Day. Looking further down the odds board, he also likes Rickie Fowler (20-1), Brooks Koepka (40-1) and a pair of young guns in Danny Lee (80-1) and Justin Thomas (100-1).
“The young guys don’t show any fear,” Sherman said. “It’s not like old-school golf when you had to prove yourself before you win a major.”
Speaking of old, Tiger Woods’ failures are a tired storyline. Tiger has turned into a house cat in majors, missing the cut in the past two, and he’s getting little support at 50-1 odds. He’s so erratic off the tee, he figures to crawl away and hide again at Whistling Straits, a course dotted with around 1,000 bunkers and sand patches.
“I’m expecting Tiger to struggle here,” Sherman said. “I could see him hitting 60-1.”
Woods is a slight favorite (minus-130) to make the cut, and the Westgate’s proposition for his finish position is 60½. Still, the TV cameras will follow his every move.
Zach Johnson, who cashed for me at 80-1 odds in the British, is offered at 50-1 this week, and he has positive course form after finishing in a tie for third at Whistling Straits five years ago.
“If an absolute long shot is going to win, this is the tournament,” said Blessing, who is adept at targeting long shots and recommends J.B. Holmes and Marc Leishman (each 100-1) as options.
Imagine a young Cinderella out of nowhere leading the pack. If it’s Sunday, and Rory McIlroy is closing in on the win, it would be an incredible story.
“I can’t imagine it,” Sherman said.
Is it that far-fetched to think McIlroy, a four-time major winner at 26, could conquer the PGA for the second year in a row? Considering the injury he suffered about a month ago, it is highly unlikely, even if the odds indicate otherwise. McIlroy (12-1) is widely considered a long shot in reality.
It was July 4 when he ruptured left ankle ligaments while playing soccer with friends. In retrospect, that was a dumb thing to do, but at least he didn’t blow off a finger while playing with fireworks.
McIlroy missed the British and has not played a competitive round since his injury. Still, he arrived in Wisconsin saying he’s “100 percent” ready to go for the PGA. Golf bettors are not buying it.
“I think people are going to shy away from Rory,” Sherman said.
This was supposed to be the year McIlroy established his dominance as the world’s No. 1 player. Instead, it has been Spieth’s season. Maybe it will be Watson’s week, even if he is way too popular.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
