Don’t fear betting against Saints on road
When it’s time to pull the trigger and bet against the New Orleans Saints, there is plenty to fear. The quarterback is the biggest factor, because Drew Brees plays a cool hand.
But it’s more than Brees. He’s the pilot of the offense, with big-play weapons waiting to strike, and coach Sean Payton calls the right shots as the air-traffic controller.
The Saints ranked No. 4 in the NFL in total offense last season. What makes them more dangerous is they also ranked fourth in total defense, a credit to wild-haired coordinator Rob Ryan.
New Orleans and Seattle own the league’s strongest home-field advantages, and the Seahawks reinforced their spot atop all sets of power ratings by pounding Green Bay in Thursday’s season opener.
As a former Las Vegas bookmaker said before the game, “I like the Packers, but I’m afraid to bet it.”
Sometimes it’s OK for a man to admit he’s afraid. Be afraid of rattlesnakes, skydiving, tornadoes, women who want to have long phone conversations about where your relationship is headed, and be especially afraid of betting against the Seahawks in Seattle.
But don’t be so fearful of the Saints on the road, where they went 1-7 against the spread last season, failing to cover all four times as favorites.
The betting public has great respect for the Saints, who are being heavily supported as 3-point favorites Sunday at Atlanta, and the disrespect for the Falcons is understandable.
Atlanta is off a 4-12 season, one wrecked by injuries, yet before that it was a Super Bowl contending team that won 13 games. Matt Ryan is not Brees, but he’s not bad, and wide receiver Julio Jones is healthy again and reunited with Roddy White. The Falcons will give the New Orleans defense fits.
As for Brees, there’s not quite as much to fear when he’s on the road. I’ll take the points with Atlanta, one of only three home ’dogs this week.
After posting a 56-28-1 record against the spread in this column in 2012, I slipped to 45-36-4 last year. Doing the math, that’s 101-64-5 (61.2 percent) over my past 170 plays.
This handicapping business is not that easy, because almost every game is a grind, but hopefully this is the start of another winning season.
Four more plays for Week 1 (home team in CAPS):
■ RAVENS (-1½) over Bengals: Baltimore is 28-2 straight up in its past 30 games as a home favorite. The Ravens appear ready for a bounce-back season, and they were the league’s most impressive team during the preseason, when quarterback Joe Flacco was nearly flawless. Andy Dalton is 2-4 versus the Ravens the past three years, with six touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and a 64.2 passer rating. The Bengals are 0-4 in their past four trips to Baltimore.
■ BUCCANEERS (-2½) over Panthers: The official word is quarterback Cam Newton, recovering from fractured ribs, is a game-time decision for Carolina. Expect him to start, and if so, expect him to struggle. Newton is rusty and working with inexperienced receivers. Tampa Bay has improved its defense, and veteran Josh McCown is an upgrade at quarterback.
■ Giants (+6) over LIONS: Do not be fooled by New York’s undefeated preseason. Eli Manning was mostly out of sync in a new offense. But Manning seems to find some magic on the road, where the Giants have covered 12 of their past 18 games. Detroit has difficulty in the home favorite’s role (6-20 in its past 26), and Jim Caldwell is at a coaching disadvantage against Tom Coughlin.
■ Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS: Without much of a running game, Arizona will rely on Carson Palmer’s passing. Philip Rivers is the better quarterback, and San Diego getting points is a good situation. The Chargers were 10-3-1 ATS as road ’dogs the past two seasons.
Last season: 45-36-4 against the spread
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
