Don’t be surprised if Mickelson contends at Masters
Nothing would thrill the whispering golf announcers more this week than Phil Mickelson playing his way into contention on Sunday. At 45, the sun is setting on his career, and his days as a legitimate threat to win another Masters are numbered.
But this is not the time to count him out.
With age comes wisdom, and Mickelson knows enough old tricks at Augusta National to keep up with the kids.
The game’s future is in the hands of Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and several other young guns, yet this course might as well be Lefty’s backyard, and he still has enough going for him to make believers out of the bettors.
“People always bet Mickelson at Augusta,” Westgate golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “When it’s a major, Mickelson is always highly supported.”
Mickelson is the Masters leader in the ticket count at the Westgate, where Day is the favorite at 7-1 odds, followed closely by McIlroy and Spieth at 8-1. After opening at 30-1 in August, the price on Mickelson has dropped to 15-1.
Spieth was the runaway winner at Augusta a year ago, when he turned into a 21-year-old phenom and The Next Big Thing. But in his shadow lurked Mickelson, who pumped up the crowd and finished tied for second.
Day, who won his first major at the PGA Championship in August, has overtaken Spieth as the world’s No.1-ranked player.
“Day looks like he has that type of aura that he had last year going into the PGA,” Sherman said, “and he’s got a good history at the Masters.”
Mickelson’s past at the Masters is tough to beat. The winner in 2004, 2006 and 2010, he has 11 top-five finishes in 23 appearances. But when shopping for golf futures, the price has to be right, and the odds on Mickelson are no longer so appealing.
“I’m not taking any of the three main favorites,” said handicapper Wes Reynolds, a must-follow on Twitter (@WesReynolds1) for serious golf bettors.
Day, McIlroy and Spieth form the game’s Big Three, but there are plenty of other options at longer odds, and Reynolds has targeted Henrik Stenson (20-1) and Justin Rose (25-1) as two of his best bets. Stenson appears on the verge of a major breakthrough, and Rose tied Mickelson for second last year at Augusta.
“The play at the shortest price I probably like the most is Rickie Fowler (15-1),” Reynolds said.
Fowler tied for fifth in the Masters two years ago, and that bring us to the subject of Bubba Watson, a lefty who won the green jacket in 2012 and 2014. He’s due again, and he’s a popular play this week at 10-1 odds.
I bet on Bubba in both of his Masters wins, and he was my first bet this year at 15-1. I also placed bets on Rose and Zach Johnson, who won last year’s British Open and put on the green jacket in 2007.
Long drivers typically score well on the par-5s at Augusta. Watson launches bombs off the tee, and Fowler ranks second on the tour in par-5 scoring average this season. Johnson is not a big hitter, but he’s a consistent pin hunter with his short irons, so he’s worth a shot at 50-1 odds.
Sherman said his preferred long shot is Ryan Moore, a former UNLV player, at 100-1. Moore tied for 12th last year, as did Las Vegas resident Kevin Na, who is posted at 125-1. Na is not a closer, though, so I eliminated him from consideration along with Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia, players who crack under pressure in majors.
The Westgate posted odds on all 89 players in the field in addition to a long list of player matchups and propositions. Will there be a playoff? The “Yes” side of that prop pays plus-290.
The Masters has served up some dramatic moments in recent years. In 2012, Watson won in a playoff. In 2013, Adam Scott won in a playoff. Two years ago, Watson caught Spieth from behind on Sunday’s back nine. There was no catching Spieth last year, though Mickelson made a minor run.
On the heels of a record Super Bowl handle of $132.5 million in Nevada, and an NCAA Tournament that generated an estimated handle of $200 million in the state, the Masters also will do big business.
“It’s amazing how much we write on this tournament,” said Sherman, who expects the Masters handle to be about 25 times bigger than the average weekly tournament.
Spieth is the leader in money wagered. Mickelson, the sentimental favorite, represents the largest liability for the Westgate book.
“It wouldn’t totally shock me,” Sherman said, “but I don’t expect Mickelson to win.”
Thirty years ago, Jack Nicklaus became the oldest Masters winner at 46. Bet on that line being whispered if Mickelson is contending on Sunday.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
