Despite distractions, money on Seahawks to make playoffs
It sure appears life is good for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s asking for the biggest contract in the NFL, and his new girlfriend is a beauty. Men want to be him, and women want to be with him.
But is it time to bet against him? A Super Bowl loser usually has a hard time bouncing back, and Wilson was the game’s goat in February, when he threw an interception from the 1-yard line to cost the Seahawks a sure victory.
In the past 20 years, nine Super Bowl losers missed the playoffs the next season, and only one got as far as the conference championship game. The hangover is not a myth. There are reasons to be restless in Seattle.
With training camps set to open next week, there are plenty of storylines to preview. Jason Simbal, vice president of CG Technology sports books, is right to call the Seahawks “one of the most intriguing teams” in the league.
“Wilson seems like a mentally strong guy,” Simbal said. “But you have a looming contract situation with the most important player on the team, a player who also threw one of the worst interceptions in Super Bowl history.”
Wilson could be his team’s biggest distraction. He wants around $25 million a year, which is more than Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, the NFL’s best quarterbacks, are earning. And while Wilson won a Super Bowl two years ago, he’s delusional to think he’s in a class with Rodgers and Brady. The story is not going away until a deal gets done, and it might not get done anytime soon.
The Seahawks have other potential problems, too. Two of their defensive stars, safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman, are headed to camp as question marks after suffering injuries late last season.
Still, sharp money is on Seattle. CG Technology posted propositions on 23 teams to make the playoffs this season, and the “Yes” side on the Seahawks has been bet from minus-300 to minus-450.
“It’s so hard to bet against a team that talented,” Simbal said.
Seattle is a minus-300 favorite to win the NFC West, a division with one of the most unpopular teams in the league. San Francisco opened at minus-210 to miss the playoffs, and one-sided action has raised the “No” price to minus-420. The expected fall of the 49ers, who lost coach Jim Harbaugh and a lot more, eliminates the Seahawks’ fiercest rival.
Arizona (plus-135) and St. Louis (plus-200) are underdogs to reach the playoffs, and there could be some value in those wagers. The Cardinals, who started 9-1 and finished 11-5 last season, are counting on their defense and the healthy return of quarterback Carson Palmer from knee surgery. The Rams, who traded for quarterback Nick Foles and improved their ground attack by drafting running back Todd Gurley from Georgia, look ready to rise in coach Jeff Fisher’s fourth season.
The Seahawks needed a miraculous comeback to stun Green Bay in the NFC title game. The “Yes” side on the Packers to make the playoffs has been bet from minus-280 to minus-400.
“Everybody is on that,” Simbal said. “The Packers have no turmoil, no injuries and everybody is back.”
Rodgers led the highest-scoring offense in the league last season, and all 11 starters return. This is an incredible stat line: Rodgers has attempted 418 passes with 36 touchdowns since throwing his last interception at Lambeau Field in December 2012. The Packers will be better on defense and primed for a run at the Super Bowl.
One of the top early-season games to circle on the calendar is Seattle at Green Bay in Week 2.
In the AFC, Simbal said sharp money is on Denver (“Yes” minus-280) to make the playoffs and against Buffalo (“No” minus-170). Peyton Manning is declining, but the Broncos still should win a weak division. New coach Rex Ryan is generating hype for the Bills, but they have to make a rare stand against the Super Bowl champs.
Brady’s status is the big mystery. It has been a drama-filled offseason for both Super Bowl quarterbacks. Brady is set to fight NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s four-game suspension, and it seems Brady’s odds are improving. I would bet on Brady’s suspension being reduced and possibly wiped out.
With or without Brady, I like New England as a 3-point home favorite over Pittsburgh in the Sept. 10 season opener. The Steelers will be without suspended running back Le’Veon Bell for their first three games.
The gap might be closing in the AFC East, but the “Yes” price on the Patriots to make the playoffs looks cheap at minus-280.
New England and Seattle remain the league’s most intriguing teams, more than five months after an epic Super Bowl.
The Seahawks ignored running back Marshawn Lynch at the goal line in February, yet they wisely handed him a contract extension in the offseason. In an effort to improve its 27th-ranked pass offense, Seattle traded with New Orleans for tight end Jimmy Graham.
Everything is in place for Wilson to keep the Seahawks atop the NFC — everything but the distractions of his contract negotiations and the two-decade trend of the Super Bowl hangover.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
