Denver defense will test Derek Carr, Raiders
While numerous NFL coaches are exposed as incompetent in regard to some game-management decisions, one is emerging as a good gambler. In what is mostly a copycat league of sheep, Raiders coach Jack Del Rio is blazing a trail and breaking rules.
Del Rio is becoming a big hit in Oakland, and he would be a good fit in Las Vegas.
In Week 1, he went all-in by calling for a 2-point conversion in a last-minute win at New Orleans. Last week, he went for it on fourth down and cashed in with an overtime win at Tampa Bay. He has been a risk-taker all season, teaching a young Raiders team what it takes to win.
But he’s also one-eyed Jack. He succeeds on the road (5-0 this season) and fails at home (2-9 against the spread) in his two seasons. The Raiders’ home-road dichotomy will be put to the test Sunday night when they host the Denver Broncos.
Also tested will be the Most Valuable Player chatter about Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who ranks fifth in the league in passing yards (2,321) and has 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Carr is completing a high percentage (66.3) of passes and allowing receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to make plays.
Carr is maturing rapidly in his third season, but can he do it against Denver’s No. 3-ranked defense? Oakland’s strong offensive line will feel some stress against Von Miller and the Broncos, who are tied for the league lead with 26 sacks.
There are some doubts about quarterback Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense, but there are holes in Oakland’s 31st-ranked defense.
The Broncos, 15-1 straight up in their past 16 road games in the AFC West, have won and covered five consecutive games at Oakland. The Raiders are 1-2 on their home field this season, and they were fortunate to get the win against San Diego.
Luck was a factor in Del Rio’s winning gambles, but he had the guts to make the calls and face the potential criticism. His team is also breaking rules — committing an NFL-record 23 penalties last week — in a negative sense. But Del Rio is doing most things right.
Meanwhile, there are coaches who are clueless about when to use timeouts (John Fox and Mike Zimmer on Monday), coaches who are clueless about when to go for two (Mike McCoy and Dan Quinn on Sunday) and coaches who are clueless about overtime rules (Bruce Arians and Jay Gruden the past two weeks.)
I’ll take the Broncos as 1½-point road underdogs, and here are four more picks for Week 9 (home team in CAPS):
Cowboys (-7) over BROWNS: Cleveland is going back to rookie Cody Kessler at quarterback for evaluation purposes. Here’s the evaluation: He’s a backup. Ezekiel Elliott, the league’s rushing leader with 799 yards, and the Dallas offensive line should pound the Browns’ 32nd-ranked defense. I put the Cowboys (6-0-1 ATS) on a six-point teaser with Seattle.
Eagles (+2½) over GIANTS: Philadelphia blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at Dallas a week ago because coach Doug Pederson mismanaged the play-calling. Expect the Eagles, who covered the series’ past three meetings in New York, to bounce back. Philadelphia has the league’s No. 4 scoring defense, allowing 16.7 points per game.
49ers (+4) over SAINTS: San Francisco is the distant No. 2 team in the Bay Area. The 49ers are a mess under coach Chip Kelly. Still, New Orleans is tough to support in the road favorite role, especially laying more than a field goal.
Titans (+5) over CHARGERS: San Diego is 5-10 ATS in its past 15 as a favorite. Philip Rivers is a better when the Chargers are road ’dogs. Tennessee is gaining steam offensively behind quarterback Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray, second in the league with 756 yards rushing.
Last week: 2-2-1 against the spread
Season: 18-18-4
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
