Calipari even money against the field
Fifteen teams are irrelevant extras in this movie, with John Calipari and his collection of future NBA stars set to crush the competition. When it’s over, the Kentucky coach is due for another new contract with a fat raise.
Calipari signed a seven-year deal last summer that pays him more than $7 million per year. In reality, he’s probably worth more.
The Wildcats are 36-0, and the average basketball fan might not be able to name more than one player on the team. In the college game, the coaches are the stars.
Calipari has turned this year’s NCAA Tournament into the Kentucky Invitational. Just to make things more interesting, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks should be added to the field.
At the Westgate Las Vegas and most other sports books, Kentucky is even money to win the championship. It’s not a bet I would make, but it’s tough to call it a bad bet. The Wildcats are not underdogs in any potential matchup the rest of the way.
It’s all about matchups at this point, and Kentucky has the edge mostly because of its size. Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson are 7-footers, Karl-Anthony Towns is 6-11 and Trey Lyles is 6-10. The Lakers’ big men are not as big or skilled.
And it’s not nonsense to think Kentucky could compete with, and maybe beat, the Knicks.
Calipari, like him or loathe him, has done a great job of putting it all together. In a movie, he could be played by Tom Cruise, another fast talker who did his best acting early in his career in “Risky Business” and “The Color of Money.” Cruise’s movies are getting worse, while Calipari’s work is getting better.
According to the plot, his team is unbeatable. But it’s probably not. It’s not a great 3-point shooting team, and it’s a team playing under pressure in a hot spotlight.
Who can take down No. 1? Here’s a scouting report on the rest of the Sweet 16 (with odds to win from the Westgate):
▶ Arizona (9-2): The other Wildcats have a legitimate shot at Kentucky. Sean Miller, seeking his first Final Four, is one of the most intense coaches you will ever see. Arizona has big men (7-foot Kaleb Tarczewski and 6-9 Brandon Ashley), explosive scorers (Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson) and a senior point guard (T.J. McConnell). It has lost three games by a total of nine points. As a 10½-point favorite, Arizona faces a relatively easy game today against Xavier.
▶ Duke (6-1): Jahlil Okafor is weak defensively and throws up prayers for free throws, but every other aspect of the 6-11 freshman’s game is solid. He can score against anyone. Quinn Cook is a senior guard, and Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow flank Okafor as three of the nation’s top freshmen. Duke has made 266 3-pointers, 74 more than Kentucky. The Blue Devils’ road to the title game is not that tough. I’m holding a Duke ticket at 8-1.
▶ Wisconsin (8-1): The Badgers are my pick to win it, but they face a brutal road. If they beat North Carolina today, Arizona and Kentucky likely will be waiting before the title game. The Big Ten champions are 33-3, one of the losses coming with 7-foot senior Frank Kaminsky out. Kaminsky, 6-9 Sam Dekker and 6-7 Nigel Hayes form an athletic front line. Bo Ryan is a coach who can force opponents to play his game. In last year’s tournament, Wisconsin beat Arizona by one in overtime before falling to Kentucky by one. The Badgers would have to earn this the hardest way possible, so I don’t like their chances as much as I did two weeks ago.
▶ Gonzaga (12-1): Experienced guards, talented big men … the Zags have everything required on the checklist. This is coach Mark Few’s most capable team yet because of 7-1 Przemek Karnowski and 6-10 Domantas Sabonis. I’m holding a Gonzaga ticket at 30-1, but it’s still a long shot.
▶ Michigan State (12-1): Tom Izzo is tough to bet against in March. The Spartans have won six of their past seven games, the loss coming to Wisconsin in overtime in the Big Ten tournament title game. Michigan State will be a popular 2-point favorite over Oklahoma on Friday. I believe five teams could win it all, and the Spartans are not in that group.
▶ Louisville (30-1): Montrezl Harrell is a force in the paint, but he’s 6-8. The Cardinals were too athletic for Northern Iowa, but they lack shooters and don’t match up well against the elite teams.
▶ North Carolina (30-1): Everyone is sleeping on the Tar Heels, who could give the Badgers a scare. Junior guard Marcus Paige is dangerous in a game played at a fast pace. But North Carolina is not tough enough on the defensive end to beat Wisconsin and Arizona.
▶ Notre Dame (30-1): The Fighting Irish, who rank third nationally in offensive efficiency, match up well with Wichita State, a 2-point favorite today. Jerian Grant leads the way, but Notre Dame has several scoring options. I like the Irish to advance, and their perimeter shooting gives them a shot to run with Kentucky.
▶ Oklahoma (30-1): The Sooners beat two double-digit seeds — Albany and Dayton — so they still have a lot to prove. Lon Kruger has one of the nation’s top five starting fives, but he’s a coach with no bench.
▶ Utah (30-1): The other Coach K, Larry Krystkowiak, has a team built on defense, size and rebounding. Delon Wright can play with Duke’s guards, and 7-foot Jakob Poeltl presents a big challenge for Okafor. Still, Mike Krzyzewski appears headed for the title game.
▶ Wichita State (30-1): A year after getting upset by Kentucky, the Shockers could get another shot. Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are tough-as-nails junior guards. But coach Gregg Marshall does not have the big men needed to get to the Final Four. Wichita State might be emotionally spent, too, after beating Kansas.
▶ North Carolina State (60-1): This team is lucky to still be alive. The Wolfpack always live on the edge. N.C. State won 74-65 at Louisville on Feb. 14 behind Anthony “Cat” Barber’s 21 points.
▶ UCLA (100-1): The Bruins were run over by Gonzaga 87-74 in December in Los Angeles. It’s not a given the Zags roll in the rematch. UCLA is a more confident team, getting better play from forward Tony Parker and better shooting from Bryce Alford.
▶ Xavier (100-1): Arizona is too athletic for the blue-collar Musketeers, who rely on 6-10 senior Matt Stainbrook, a pro wrestling prospect.
▶ West Virginia (100-1): The Mountaineers pressure and run, but Kentucky can play that game. There is one trend working in their favor — coach Bob Huggins is 8-2 against Calipari.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
