Books rush to capture action on win totals
Out of a bad relationship and eager to rebound, Donovan McNabb represents one of the NFL’s many mysteries. As the monotony of the lockout gives way to the excitement of the unknown, it all starts with a quarterback shuffle.
McNabb is relocating to Minnesota. Matt Hasselbeck is headed to Tennessee. Kevin Kolb has been traded to Arizona. Kyle Orton might be on the move to Miami.
But with rampant changes affecting 32 teams, oddsmakers are expecting more of the same. That’s why, even as the league enters a chaotic stage of free-agent signings and trades, MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood pulled a surprisingly quick trigger and posted regular-season win totals at 1 p.m. Tuesday, about 24 hours after owners and players hugged and made up.
Rood decided bettors had waited long enough, his figures were solid and he did not consider it risky business to be first in the wagering world to unveil the numbers.
"Everybody was shocked at that," Rood said. "But for the people here in town now, if they wanted to bet it, I wanted to have it up."
At 9 a.m. Wednesday, Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert posted a different set of season wins at the M Resort, where about 10 sharks were circling and ready to attack.
"I know people say it all the time," Colbert said, "but the excitement in the book about the NFL is actually pretty crazy.
"I did want to be first with the season wins. I wish we had put them up two weeks ago. I don’t think there’s too much risk with this stuff. I think we got a lot of the quarterback moves with McNabb and Hasselbeck, and there are going to be a few more things happen, but we’ll just adjust on the fly."
About 90 percent of the season-win action Colbert took on his opening numbers was from sharp players, most looking to scalp and middle bets made at other books.
Those bettors played under the totals on Cincinnati (7), Cleveland (7), Tennessee (7) Minnesota (6½) and Washington (6½). The biggest move at MGM books was against the Bengals, who finished 4-12 last year and could start rookie Andy Dalton at quarterback.
Rood opened the Bengals at 7½ over minus-120. The number has dropped to 6½ under minus-130. Colbert had planned to open the Bengals’ win total at 6½, but seeing what MGM posted, he went to 7.
"I’ve seen their numbers and obviously our numbers are a lot different, which is good because you get bets," Colbert said. "I figured there was no reason to put up 6½ when they put up 7½. I got annoyed with that one. I should have just put our number up.
"Maybe something should be 8½ and you put up 9½, but you can adjust pretty fast. Maybe you get hit with a bet or two bets that you don’t like."
Rood said MGM’s liability on the Bengals, less than $50,000 at the moment, and a few other teams is "nothing overly concerning." It was a small risk he was willing to take.
"We’ve got four or five teams we’ve got a position on, and I want a position on every team actually," Rood said. "It’s like decisions on another week of games."
Sports books don’t always cash in on win totals. Last season, Rood said, MGM lost 1.5 percent of its handle.
"It’s one of those things that goes back and forth," Colbert said. "I think it’s probably 50-50 for most books. You don’t win on the season wins every year, as opposed to the Super Bowl futures where you win 95 percent of the time. The thing is with season wins, you’re dealing with some smart players."
As he spoke, Colbert took a limit bet ($2,000) on the Titans under 7. The limit bet at MGM is $3,000, and Colbert and Rood each said they will up the ante to $5,000 next week as more player moves develop.
"I’m sitting here monitoring it," Rood said. "Kolb to Arizona is probably the biggest move."
McNabb’s impact with the Vikings is expected to be minimal; at his age (34), he’s only slightly more mobile than a mannequin.
"I think he’s a small step up," said Colbert, who took a limit bet on Minnesota under 6½ at plus-120. "If I had to say, I think Minnesota will go 7-9."
Rood added: "I’ve got to think McNabb can play decent enough to put the Vikings in the mix. They were right there two years ago, and not much has really changed. All he has to do is manage the game and make sure Adrian Peterson gets his carries, and they should be OK."
The Vikings were a play away from the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Now the mystery question is: Can the player they added, McNabb, lead them to seven wins?
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
