Books don’t sweat rare losing day
It was LaDainian Tomlinson who crossed the goal line on a 2-yard run and carried the New York Jets to their second win-and-cover thriller of the week. Tomlinson’s touchdown was far from the deciding play of Sunday’s game, though.
The Jets, 3½-point favorites, beat the Denver Broncos 24-20, and they finished it off with a big assist from the zebras.
In today’s NFL, the officials are almost as important as the quarterbacks, receivers and running backs. The biggest plays in some games are pass interference penalties, and many of the calls are questionable.
Several games in Week 6, including Jets-Broncos, turned into coin flips in the final minutes. This time around, the betting public finally won the toss, and it was a rare losing day for Las Vegas sports books.
“Everyone has been talking about the books doing great. We enjoyed a pretty good run through September,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. “The pendulum swung back the players’ way. We’re going to have a losing day.
“You’re going to have days in the NFL that just don’t go your way.”
Don’t worry, the books will stay open for business. By most accounts, the losses from Sunday were relatively minor.
The bettors benefited most by wins from Miami, Minnesota, San Francisco and the Jets. Only the Dolphins were underdogs.
It has been a season dominated by underdogs, making it a thoroughly enjoyable season for bookmakers, but the favorites fought back a little to go 6-5-2 against the spread Sunday.
If you bet the NFL on a regular basis, you know the value of a half-point and the consequences of penalty flags. Both factors were evident in the Jets’ victory.
On fourth-and-6 from midfield with just more than a minute remaining, the Jets’ Mark Sanchez launched a pass for Santonio Holmes, who battled near the goal line with Broncos safety Renaldo Hill. The pass fell incomplete, and the Denver side celebrated — until the flag also fell.
It was a 50-50 call. A replay showed Hill’s fingers caught Holmes’ face mask, meriting the penalty. But field judge Gary Cavaletto, who called pass interference, probably didn’t see the fingers-in-the-face mask part of the play because he was shielded from it. Cavaletto threw the flag anyway.
“It was just two guys going for the ball, and they were both falling backward,” Rood said.
Jets coach Rex Ryan said the penalty “could be debatable.” But the bottom line is it’s a win for Jets bettors and a bitter half-point loss for Broncos bettors. That’s the randomness of the NFL.
That also runs the Jets’ lucky cover streak to two games. They won and covered last Monday after a late interception return for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings.
Most bettors rode the Vikings again Sunday, and Minnesota covered as a 2-point favorite in a 24-21 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, who dropped to 1-4.
The San Francisco 49ers improved to 1-5 by coming back to defeat the Oakland Raiders, 17-9. Money on the 49ers inflated the line to 7½, and the number even hit 8 late. The Raiders, and especially quarterback Jason Campbell, were typically inept.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were the biggest favorites on the board, but the bettors didn’t blink and won the coin flip.
Back from a four-game suspension for misconduct off the field, Ben Roethlisberger returned and the Steelers covered the 14-point spread on Roethlisberger’s 14-yard touchdown pass with 1:25 remaining in a 28-10 victory over Cleveland.
The half-point was crucial as the New England Patriots, 3-point favorites, erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Baltimore Ravens 23-20 in overtime. The line was 2½ at some books, but I’ll call it a push.
The Sunday finale was a push for everyone. The Indianapolis Colts were 3-point favorites in a 27-24 victory over Washington, and the books’ losses would have piled up if the Colts had cashed tickets.
Chicago, Green Bay and San Diego were upset victims. The Chargers, 8½-point favorites, fell to 0-4 on the road with a 20-17 setback at St. Louis.
“I thought two or three weeks ago, the Chargers would be the team to step up and take the lead in the AFC,” Rood said. “But I couldn’t have been more wrong about that.”
But that’s the NFL. Sometimes you’re definitely on the right side, sometimes you’re dead wrong, and sometimes you flip a coin and hope to get lucky.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and kdwn.com.
