Boilermakers rise up just enough for bookmakers

Two types of underdogs rise up in March: the ones who come from nowhere, and the others we all know, such as Robbie Hummel. The ‘dogs win outright, get blown out or lose but cover, as was the case with Purdue.

Aside from two major upsets, the favorites held a slight upper hand in this NCAA Tournament going into Sunday’s eight games. The ‘dogs covered five, with three — Cincinnati, North Carolina State and Ohio — winning outright.

Those were minor upsets. The Boilermakers threatened to pull off a bigger one, pushing No. 2 seed Kansas to the wire before losing a 10-point second-half lead and the game, 63-60.

Purdue was an 8-point underdog and plus-340 on the money line, and that sort of result is ideal for bookmakers because the public laid the points with the Jayhawks and there was no fat money-line payout.

"Normally, we need the favorites to win and not cover on those games with the big spreads," LVH sports book director Jay Kornegay said.

Hummel, a 6-foot-8-inch senior forward who fought back from two knee surgeries, scored 22 of his 26 points in the first half and almost blew up my bracket, which has Kansas winning it all.

The Jayhawks, trailing by six, were 8- to 8½-point favorites on the halftime line, and they covered on Tyshawn Taylor’s breakaway dunk with 2.5 seconds left. Taylor should have dribbled out the clock — his dunk allowed the Boilermakers a last shot to try to force overtime — but the bettors who won won’t complain.

Purdue was no sleeper, being one of five Big Ten teams to win in the opening round. Norfolk State of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference was the other type of underdog.

"Norfolk just came out of nowhere," Kornegay said.

The Spartans stunned Missouri as 21½-point underdogs, and bettors had 48 hours to decide if it was a fluke.

On the advice of my brother, who last Tuesday called Norfolk State the best bet of the opening round, I bet the Spartans on Friday and stuck with them getting 14½ points against Florida on Sunday.

It was a mistake that proved costly to a lot of bettors.

"Actually, the public liked Norfolk. It was kind of odd," Kornegay said. "Love at first sight."

Our second look at Norfolk was ugly. The Gators reeled off 25 straight points in the first half and rolled, 84-50. The lesson there was this: Don’t show up late to the party, because most Cinderellas get crushed in their second game.

After the rush of 32 games in the opening round, most bettors were faring well but dealing with burnout by the end of the weekend.

"Going into Sunday, I think most books were on the losing end of it. It has kind of been a rough tournament," Kornegay said. "The public is really supporting the short favorites, the perceived better teams. It’s not an overwhelming number of favorites covering, but for us, it’s the wrong accumulation of favorites."

On Thursday, favorites covered 10 of 16 games. Friday was a slightly better day for the ‘dogs, highlighted by Lehigh’s upset of Duke. It’s always a great day when the Blue Devils are knocked out of the dance.

Norfolk State was plus-4,000 on the money line against Missouri, and believe it or not, the LVH paid off two $1,000 wagers on the team that came out of nowhere.

Lehigh was another Cinderella sent packing after a 12-point loss to Xavier.

While Kornegay said the betting action Sunday "was nowhere near what it was Thursday and Friday," the quality of the basketball did not disappoint. But if it’s possible to win and be disappointed, that’s the case with North Carolina.

The Tar Heels, 9½-point favorites, cruised by Creighton 87-73 but might have lost Kendall Marshall, arguably the nation’s top point guard, to a fractured right wrist. Marshall is expected to go in for surgery today and might return for Friday’s game against Ohio.

Four teams from Ohio reached the Sweet 16, which offers some intriguing matchups — Wisconsin-Syracuse (-4), Louisville-Michigan State (-5) and Indiana-Kentucky (-8½).

My initial thought is John Calipari’s NBA developmental team is about to pay back the Hoosiers with a butt whipping.

The NCAA Tournament has been a disaster for Duke, Missouri and the Mountain West Conference.

The Tar Heels are in trouble, but with the Hummel hurdle cleared, the bracket is opening up for Kansas.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.