Bettors ‘crazy’ about young Cubs ahead of season
Finally, the wait-until-next-year story is history. Kris Bryant, arguably the brightest of the Chicago Cubs’ several young stars, has arrived to help change a franchise with a past so depressing it could be the theme of a country-western song.
Imagine a guy with a guitar, and he’s crooning about losing his dog, girlfriend, job, pickup truck and that futures wager on the Cubs.
But no longer is a bet on the Cubs’ future a foolish expense. It appears Joe Maddon has the most talented team in the major leagues, and Maddon also might be the best manager in baseball. So, maybe this is the year.
The Cubs are posted at 9-2 odds as the World Series favorites in Las Vegas, where bookmakers have collected on that bet for countless years. There were no books in the desert in 1908.
“People are betting the Cubs to win the World Series like crazy,” Westgate sportsbook manager Ed Salmons said.
The Westgate has written 370 tickets on the Cubs. The San Francisco Giants are No. 2 in ticket count at 239, followed by the New York Mets at 177. The Giants, Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are each offered at 10-1 odds.
It was the Mets who spoiled the Cubs’ 2015 dream by sweeping them out of the National League Championship Series. But the Cubs made home improvements over the winter by adding valuable pieces around the 24-year-old Bryant, a power-hitting third baseman who launched his career at Bonanza High School, and star first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
Chicago swiped right fielder Jason Heyward and right-hander John Lackey from the St. Louis Cardinals. Heyward and second baseman Ben Zobrist will boost the team’s defense and veteran leadership. Lackey will slip into the rotation behind ace Jake Arrieta, a 22-game winner, and Jon Lester.
Rizzo ripped 31 home runs last season, and Bryant finished with 26 after a slow start. Westgate oddsmakers put matching regular-season home run totals (31½) on Rizzo and Bryant, and the Cubs’ win total (93½) is the highest in the majors.
“In a division that tough, to predict a team to win that many games is almost insane,” said Micah Roberts, an analyst for The Linemakers on SportingNews.com and a former sports book director.
Roberts said he’s skeptical about the Cubs’ bullpen and respectful of the Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central, which was insanely strong a year ago. St. Louis is coming off a 100-62 finish. The Pirates won 98 games, one more than the Cubs, who eliminated both division rivals in the postseason.
“You look at that roster, and it’s stacked, and Maddon is the manager, so I don’t expect the Cubs to be one of those disappointing teams,” Salmons said. “But no matter how you look at it, in baseball there is just such an element of luck.”
Luck is rarely on the Cubs’ side, but Maddon has a loaded team that will win at least 90 games and bring hope to Wrigley Field in October.
Maybe bookmakers finally will be forced to pay on those futures tickets.
■ NL WEST — It’s an even year, so San Francisco, which won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014, is due again. But the Giants must overcome the Sports Illustrated cover jinx and hope their two major rotation additions — Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija — don’t turn into flops.
This division features the top two lefties in baseball in Madison Bumgarner of the Giants and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. However, the Dodgers lost No. 2 starter Zack Greinke to Arizona, and the Diamondbacks are built to contend.
“I contend the Giants are definitely overrated. Cueto’s best days are behind him, and Samardzija is nothing more than a .500 pitcher,” Salmons said. “I look for the Dodgers to win the division.”
San Diego is a good bet to stay under its win total of 73. The Padres’ starting pitching is a strength, but the bullpen could be a bust and the lineup is loaded with question marks, so they should be out of the race and trading away pitchers in July.
■ NL EAST — A year ago, Washington was the World Series favorite. The Nationals underachieved at 83-79. None of it was the fault of Bryce Harper, a teen phenom in Las Vegas and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft. Harper hit .330 with 42 home runs.
The Mets won 90 games and the division with pitching. It’s tough to top a rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon and Zack Wheeler.
“The public loves the Mets,” Salmons said. “You don’t hear anything about the Nationals this spring, so I like the Nationals.”
Miami has two of baseball’s most electric young stars in right fielder Giancarlo Stanton and right-hander Jose Fernandez. Atlanta and Philadelphia will be two of the worst teams in the majors.
■ AL WEST — All eyes are on the Houston Astros, a rising young team led by shortstop Carlos Correa and ace lefty Dallas Keuchel. Correa will challenge Angels outfielder Mike Trout as a Most Valuable Player candidate. Texas is the defending champ in a division that is puzzling to predict.
“I don’t like the Angels. I can’t imagine the A’s could be over .500. The team I’m really confused about is Seattle,” Salmons said. “Sometimes you see a regression, but I’m not sure you’ll see that out of Houston.”
■ AL CENTRAL — Even after winning a World Series last year and losing in Game 7 in 2014, Kansas City still gets a lack of respect. Following a 95-win season, the Royals win total is set at just 84.
Cleveland has a rotation of power arms — Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer — and will top its 86-win total if the outfielders can produce enough offense.
“I think the Indians have a chance to win that division by a lot,” Salmons said. “I think K.C. has a chance to really collapse and win in the 70s. I expect Detroit to be nothing this year.”
■ AL EAST — Did the division’s balance of power shift to Boston after the Red Sox lured free-agent lefty David Price from Toronto? The Blue Jays, who led the majors in run differential at plus-221, still are intimidating offensively.
“The public is on Toronto. The computer people like Tampa Bay,” Salmons said. “I would not discount the Yankees. Their pitching just looks so much better. At the end of the day, this division is going to be between Boston and the Yankees.”
If the Cubs reach the World Series, look for the Indians, Red Sox or Yankees to be standing in the way of history.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
