Bettors continue to cash tickets on unbeaten Patriots
If something seems like a bad idea at the time, don’t gamble and do it anyway. Spitting into the wind, swimming with piranhas, betting against an angry Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. All bad ideas, obviously.
As challenging and exciting as it can be trying to predict the Patriots’ flat spot, it’s making little sense and draining dollars from the bankroll.
Las Vegas bookmakers were in the uncomfortable spot of rooting against New England on Sunday, and after Brady passed for two touchdowns in a surgical 30-6 dissection of the Dallas Cowboys, bookmakers can get used to being in that spot. The Patriots will be drawing big money almost every week.
At 4-0, the Patriots also might be favored every week for the remainder of the NFL season. Playing the proposition on New England to go 16-0 is not the worst idea in the world.
“We know there’s a long way to go, and we know a lot of things can happen, but it looks like the Patriots just toy with people,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker at the South Point sports book.
The “Yes” side of the Patriots’ undefeated prop was plus-1,200 when Vaccaro walked out of the book Sunday night.
“I didn’t change it, but I’m going to change it in the morning,” he said. “I’ll lower it.”
The Cowboys, 9-point home underdogs, sacked Brady five times but still were hopeless. Brady completed 20 of 27 passes for 275 yards, and Bill Belichick’s defense did the rest. Dallas had six three-and-outs on its first seven drives while falling to 0-3 with Brandon Weeden failing to fill in for injured quarterback Tony Romo.
My bad idea of the day was putting even a small wager on the Cowboys. But that was a mistake few made. Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay said Dallas drew the fewest tickets of any team on the board in Week 5.
New England, Arizona and Denver drew most of the action in the afternoon to help the betting public sweep the late games and even the score.
The Cardinals, laying 4½ points, whipped the winless Lions 42-17. Carson Palmer passed for three touchdowns, and Matthew Stafford threw three interceptions before getting sent to the Detroit bench.
“I have a suspicion we’re going to need the Lions every week. I don’t see that changing anytime soon,” Kornegay said. “I can’t see a scenario where we have more tickets on the Lions than whoever they are playing, even if they are playing the Jaguars or Buccaneers.”
The Broncos, laying 5½ points, picked up a 16-10 win and a fortunate cover in Oakland, as Chris Harris returned an interception 74 yards for a touchdown with seven minutes remaining.
Peyton Manning was intercepted twice and failed to pass for a touchdown. The Broncos are 5-0 but not blowing anyone away. Unless the injury bug bites Brady, the Patriots figure to be favored in every remaining game, with a possible exception being Nov. 29 at Denver.
“Manning did nothing again. What did he do?” Vaccaro said. “I think you have to make New England the favorite at Denver.”
The league’s other 5-0 teams — Atlanta, Cincinnati and Green Bay — did not get there the easy way.
The Bengals, 3-point favorites, overcame a 24-7 fourth-quarter deficit against the Seattle defense and won 27-24 in overtime. It felt like a miracle. Andy Dalton passed for 331 yards and two touchdowns, coming up big in the type of spot that was always too big for him in the past.
“Dalton has had some problems in big situations and big games. He has been booed in his hometown. But winning cures everything,” Kornegay said. “Maybe that hangover for the Super Bowl loser is kicking in with the Seahawks.”
The Falcons, 7-point favorites, needed overtime to beat Washington 25-19. The Packers, 9-point favorites, held off St. Louis 24-10 even with Aaron Rodgers getting picked off twice at Lambeau Field. An argument can be made the Rams, who blew several scoring opportunities, were a right-side loser.
Rodgers was off on the same day Jay Cutler was a hero, something that happens about as often as a total lunar eclipse. Cutler passed for two touchdowns in the final 3:05 to lift Chicago, a 9½-point underdog and plus-375 on the money line, to an 18-17 victory in Kansas City. Another dog barked when Cleveland, getting 6½ points, beat Baltimore 33-30 in overtime.
“We knew going into the day that a couple of those underdogs that were getting anywhere from 6 to 9 points would have to win for us to have a decent day,” Kornegay said. “We got a couple with the Bears and Browns coming through.”
My good idea of the day was betting on Philadelphia to finally put it together. The Eagles, who moved from 4½- to 6½-point favorites, blew out New Orleans 39-17.
“The sharps were on the Eagles early in the week. That was a good game for the sharps and the public,” Kornegay said. “The public played a lot of favorites, and they were heavy on the Cardinals.”
Kornegay said the Cowboys, Lions and 49ers were the sides that drew the fewest tickets. The bookmakers won the morning, the bettors swept the afternoon and San Francisco, a 7½-point ‘dog, made it a bookmakers’ night by covering in a 30-27 loss to the New York Giants. That made the day a push or small winner for most books.
I’ll be in San Diego on Monday night for Steelers-Chargers, and I took 3½ with Pittsburgh. We’ll see if that’s a bad idea.
“Everything is on the Chargers,” Vaccaro said.
But the Chargers, who have covered only three of their past 15 games, are not to be confused with the Patriots.
— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him: @mattyoumans247
