Betting NFL preseason games is not insane
A cameo appearance by Andrew Luck, who disappeared from the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks last season, might be the highlight of the night.
Aaron Rodgers is not expected to start, and he’s definitely not going to finish by throwing another Hail Mary.
Luck and the Indianapolis Colts face Rodgers and the Green Packers on Sunday in the Hall of Fame Game at Canton, Ohio. The teams will hook up for real in November at Lambeau Field, and the preseason opener is just foreplay. Still, for many of us, this is must-see TV.
Six months after Super Bowl 50, it’s time to do this again. It’s time to bet football and sweat the results.
“It’s been a long, long summer,” Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said. “The public loves betting the NFL. I’m glad it’s finally here. It’s good for the books.”
Believe it or not, preseason games can be good for the bettors, too. It’s not insanity. There are reasons the wagering limits are lower and parlay cards are not stacked high. Oddsmakers are often guessing at opening lines, and some numbers will move three to four points based on late information and sharp action.
While the first week is a dice roll, the games get more realistic in preseason Weeks 2 and 3. The key is to reduce the luck factor by digging for valuable angles.
“This is the time of year when you look at backup quarterbacks,” said Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas handicapper and ESPN Radio host.
Same as the regular season, coaches and quarterbacks are the most important characters in the preseason, but for different reasons. Some coaches reveal more game-plan details than others, and some play to win more than others. It’s critical to know how long the starting quarterbacks will play and which teams have the strongest backups.
As for the Colts and Packers, Luck probably will play a bigger role than Rodgers, yet Green Bay has the stronger backup in Brett Hundley, a former UCLA star.
“Hundley is the key for me,” Cokin said. “This kid is truly driven to become a good NFL QB. He’s definitely the profile of the backup quarterbacks I like to back in these early games.”
Cokin (SmokinCokin.com) said he wanted to play the Packers at pick’em, but news of Hundley being hobbled by an ankle injury in practice this week puts his status in doubt.
I’m high on the Packers’ prospects with wide receiver Jordy Nelson, Rodgers’ favorite target, returning from a knee injury. Nelson is not playing this week, however, and the preseason opener could be a downer for Green Bay if undrafted rookie Joe Callahan is the top quarterback. It’s doubtful Callahan is the next Brett Favre.
“If Jordy is back and he’s healthy, I think Rodgers has a monster year, and for my money the Packers are one of those teams to beat in the NFC,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “But you’re not going to see a lot of the stars or impact players early in the preseason.”
Luck is back and healthy after suffering a lacerated kidney that ended his disappointing 2015 season in November. When he exits Sunday, presumably after two series, the Colts will turn to Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris.
There will be several better spots for bettors in the preseason, and here are a few angles worth considering the next few weeks:
• New coaches often want to instill a winning mentality immediately. Cleveland’s Hue Jackson and San Francisco’s Chip Kelly should be the most motivated newcomers.
• Teams with quarterback competitions in camp typically take things more seriously. Kelly has said the preseason will be “huge” for Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick in their duel to be the 49ers’ starter. Denver also has a battle for No. 1 brewing with Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian and first-round pick Paxton Lynch.
• Bet against teams with a veteran starting quarterback and weak backups, and Dallas fits the description. Tony Romo, returning from an injury and set to see limited action, is backed up by rookie Dak Prescott and Jameill Showers.
The Cowboys, who have depth problems on their defensive front, could look like the worst team in the league this month.
The Colts and Packers will stage a costume party with mostly anonymous players in familiar uniforms, yet the Hall of Fame Game always draws a strong wagering handle, and last year its TV ratings topped some NBA Finals and World Series games.
“When the preseason starts, and especially in a prime-time game, in many cases the handle will dwarf that of a baseball game,” Esposito said. “It just shows you the strength of football, and everyone can’t wait for it to be back.”
There’s nothing crazy about betting these games. Playing the preseason is similar to every other form of gambling — it’s only a problem if you’re losing.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
