Arcidiacono, Villanova tough enough to cut down nets at Final Four
A sure-fire way to impress the public is with flash. An expensive suit or a fast car will do the trick, and in the case of basketball bettors, so will a hot 3-point shooter such as Oklahoma star Buddy Hield.
A fast-paced, high-scoring team named North Carolina blows away the public, too. Two of the Final Four teams in action Saturday in Houston are considered flashy. Hield throws in 3s in bunches to put the Sooners on the highlight reel, and the Tar Heels overrun opponents with athletes.
As for the other two teams? The Syracuse zone is a buzz kill, and Ryan Arcidiacono is not exactly exciting the NBA scouts.
“I think Oklahoma-Villanova is a great matchup,” said Chuck Esposito, Sunset Station sports book director. “A lot of it will depend on how Buddy Hield plays.”
But it’s also a great matchup because of Arcidiacono, a skinny point guard with a last name that is tough to pronounce and a game that proves even tougher. He’s from Philadelphia, where people are inspired by Rocky Balboa and Vince Papale. Villanova is a team built for a street fight.
Here are four reasons the Wildcats can knock out Hield and reach Monday’s championship game:
1) The Sooners sizzle from the 3-point line, but the setting in NRG Stadium, home of an NFL team, is less than ideal for perimeter shooters. A study by Ken Pomeroy (Kenpom.com) showed in 15 college basketball games played in this stadium, the teams made 32.2 percent of their 3-point attempts, slightly below the expected norm. In the 2011 title game in the same stadium, Butler shot 18.8 percent from the field in a loss to Connecticut.
“Oklahoma depends in large part on the success of its perimeter offense,” SystemPlays.com handicapper Doug Fitz said. “The Wildcats are bigger and more balanced, and the poor shooting environment is less likely to impact their performance.”
2) A game in December is mostly irrelevant. Hield hit four 3s and had 18 points in the Sooners’ 78-55 victory over Villanova on Dec. 7 in Honolulu. The Wildcats shot 4-for-32 on 3s, and they will put an emphasis on attacking the basket and using their interior strength to get to the free-throw line in the rematch.
3) Villanova is the No. 2 free-throw shooting team in the nation at 78.4 percent, which is remarkable. Oklahoma ranks 80th at 72.3 percent, which is not chopped liver.
4) Arcidiacono is the spiritual leader of a team that appreciates defense and toughness. The senior avoids mistakes, committing only two turnovers in his past 97 minutes on the floor, and he has won to the tune of a 115-27 record in his four-year career.
“Both teams play smothering defense, but I think Villanova has more scoring options,” Esposito said. “I lean to Villanova.”
I will side with the Wildcats as 2-point favorites in a game drawing two-way wagering action. The totals have been bet down a few points to 145 in both games, mostly because of the mystery surrounding the stadium’s shooting atmosphere. In the nightcap, North Carolina is a 9½-point favorite over Syracuse, and the Tar Heels’ flash will attract more interest from the public.
“The public is definitely going to come in on Carolina,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. “I think the line is going to 10.”
A $200 million tournament?
Almost two months after Super Bowl 50, Las Vegas bookmakers are raving about a bigger event. The wagering handle on the NCAA Tournament, which totals 67 games, is surpassing estimates from early in March.
“The handle has just been through the roof,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “For us, it’s going to be a record handle for the whole tournament. I believe reaching $200 million for the entire tournament is pretty accurate.”
A record $132.5 million was wagered in Nevada on this year’s Super Bowl. The NCAA Tournament figured to draw around $150 million in action, but most bookmakers are reporting handle increases of 10 to 30 percent over the 2015 tournament.
“It’s shattering numbers going back for years,” said Kornegay, who attributes the surge to the ease of betting on phone apps and the general popularity of sports wagering.
“I think it’s a combination of everything,” Rood said. “We’re probably up anywhere between 10 to 15 percent. It’s five straight years of steady double-digit (percentage) growth.”
The NCAA Tournament never disappoints, and the thrill of it will almost ensure more impressive wagering numbers next year.
“The handle has been really strong,” Esposito said. “I just think the tournament as a whole is getting bigger and bigger every year, based on the crowds and the hype.”
The final three
The season is down to three games, and all three will be heavily bet. North Carolina is the favorite to cut down the nets.
“I don’t think Syracuse has enough offense to stay with Carolina,” Esposito said.
If the Tar Heels advance, they are projected to be favored by 2½ points over Villanova or 3½ over Oklahoma, but how the teams perform in the semifinals will influence the line for the title game.
Sooners coach Lon Kruger, who left UNLV five years ago, is a sentimental favorite in Las Vegas. His fate rests in Hield’s shooting hand, and whether it’s hot or not.
“Being a Kruger fan, I wouldn’t be disappointed if it’s Oklahoma in the championship game,” Esposito said. “I like the chances of whoever comes out of that Oklahoma-Villanova game to win the national championship.”
I like defense, toughness and Arcidiacono to win it all.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
