A few words of support for Belichick, Brady
A man of few words, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been stuck on a few Super Bowl wins for 10 years. In all five of his trips, the game went to the wire.
All three of the Patriots’ wins under Belichick were decided by three points. The two losses were by three and four points. His sixth trip figures to be another photo finish.
Of course, Tom Brady has been Belichick’s quarterback on each trip. Who is more important to New England’s success, Belichick or Brady? It’s one of those questions with no definitive answer — some guys say Ginger and others prefer Mary Ann — because one needs the other to stay at the top for so long.
Who will win this Super Bowl? The answer is coming Sunday night from Glendale, Ariz., and there are compelling arguments for both sides. The line reflects as much, with the Seattle Seahawks opening as favorites before the Patriots were bet to 1-point favorites.
“I’ve really got no opinion,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “But if you put a gun to my head, I would go with Seattle.”
The line at William Hill’s books opened pick’em and has not budged, though Bogdanovich said about 65 percent of the wagers have been on New England.
Last week, I looked at the Seattle argument, which is based on the defending champions being more physical and the fact the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense almost always wins in these situations. This time last year, the Seahawks were underdogs and made a mockery of Peyton Manning in a 43-8 blowout of Denver.
The public was infatuated with Manning and the Broncos, and it turned out to be a fatal attraction. This scene is eerily similar. There is no denying it.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots pounded Indianapolis in the AFC title game after the Seahawks needed a miracle comeback to stun Green Bay in the NFC title game. Most bettors tend to overreact to what they saw most recently, and there is no denying it.
But with assistance from Bernie Fratto, an ESPN Radio host in Las Vegas, I’ll argue the Seahawks are not as strong as last year and the Patriots are not popular paper tigers resembling Manning and the Broncos.
It all starts with Brady, a far better big-game quarterback than Manning, and Belichick, a defensive genius not to be confused with John Fox.
“I’ve always felt Belichick is the gold standard when it comes to game-planning and devising a defensive scheme to pin the bear, and he’s been doing it since 1987,” said Fratto, a former Detroit Lions radio host. “Remember, Bill Parcells never won a Super Bowl without Belichick by his side. And for good reason.
“Belichick’s ability to neutralize and nullify an opponent’s strength is unparalleled. Seattle lacks the offensive depth to beat a Belichick defense, in my view.”
That’s a big key, in my opinion, too. The Seahawks’ top wide receivers — Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse — are mediocre at best. Percy Harvin and Golden Tate are long gone. Belichick can focus his defensive scheme on clogging up Marshawn Lynch’s running lanes without fearing Seattle’s impotent vertical passing attack.
There is a fear factor with Russell Wilson, who is most dangerous as a running quarterback, but he has not been running as much lately. The Packers kept Wilson in the pocket for the most part and forced him into four interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defense is down a notch, and safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman are nursing injuries. Is that top-ranked defense a little phony? Probably.
The Seahawks took a seven-game win streak into the Green Bay game. During the win streak, the opposing quarterbacks were Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill and Cam Newton. Sanchez was the highest-rated passer of the group at 18th in the league. A hobbled Aaron Rodgers had Seattle all but beat.
The Patriots are not a one-trick pony relying solely on Brady, who has better wideouts, a monster tight end in Rob Gronkowski and an improved, physical running attack.
“The Patriots proved this season they could handle the challenge that a top-flight defense presents,” Fratto said. “They faced three of the NFL’s top defenses in 2014 (Broncos, Lions, Bills) and dismembered them.
“Seattle is still a formidable unit, and it’s quite a feat to return to the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons, but in my view, they are not nearly as imposing as last year’s team. This Seahawks offense is simply not as fluid as it once was, and if their defense can’t force takeaways, that could be a real problem for them.”
What happened in the conference championship games has not influenced my opinion. Before the playoffs, I decided New England would be my side in the Super Bowl. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.
“It’s not uncommon for folks to remember what they saw last, but what sticks in my mind is that people are still captivated by Seattle’s dominant performance in last year’s game and that trumps everything else,” Fratto said. “While you can’t ignore the analytics that surround this game, in this contest I feel coaching, matchups and schemes will override analytics.”
I was on the Seahawks last year, but this will be a much different game. Here’s a bet that Belichick and Brady don’t lose a third straight Super Bowl.
■ BOTTOM LINES — In Sunday’s paper and online, we will publish a Super Bowl poll of 50 opinions from Review-Journal staff members, other media, oddsmakers and professional handicappers.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
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