Title bout not likely to hold surprises

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Meet your resident movie critic/boxing trainer, Roger Mayweather:

“This ain’t going to be no Rocky Balboa movie. You make movies with the stuff Ricky Hatton does. But you can’t make a movie about my nephew because he’s the truth. You can’t do that Rocky Balboa (stuff) in a real fight. You get your ass whipped. You get your face busted up.

“This ain’t ‘Rocky.’ Cut me open. Cut you open? What the hell are you talking about? You’re already cut open. You need some Band-Aids. Ricky Hatton is nothing but a club fighter. He has no skills. Period. He’s going to bring his heart and his guts because that’s all he has. And he’s going to leave on the canvas.”

It’s a theory so popular — that Hatton’s aggressive style, his ability to throw more punches in a round than Daisuke Matsuzaka does pitches in any fifth-day start can’t possibly best Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s notorious defensive skill — that you wonder if it’s too easy a prediction for the WBC welterweight title fight Saturday evening at the MGM Grand Garden.

You wonder if there is more to it, wonder if by some slight chance, Hatton can beat Mayweather at his own game — going to the scorecards and winning a decision.

Two have come close enough to make it possible. Just not likely.

Jose Luis Castillo gives Hatton hope. The idea that in 2002, Castillo landed more than 100 power punches than Mayweather did. That while Castillo lost a unanimous decision, many thought it was much closer. Many, in fact, thought he won.

Oscar De La Hoya gives Hatton hope. The idea that in May of this year, Mayweather needed a split decision to remain unbeaten. That his defense seemed susceptible early against De La Hoya, that if Mayweather is as slow to start Saturday as he was seven months ago, Hatton could pile up enough points to ensure victory.

“I’m not going to outbox Floyd Mayweather,” Hatton said. “But my boxing will surprise him. My speed will surprise him. My quickness and burst will surprise him.

“He waited for Zab Judah (in April 2006) to get tired and stop coming. He waited for Castillo to stop coming. He waited for Oscar to stop coming. What is going to happen when he sees me in the sixth round continuing to come just as hard and he’s still trying to soak it up?

“He won’t be able to handle the fire I put on him. He can’t stay away from my volume of punches. He has dealt with pressure, but he dealt with it badly. He’ll ask what round it is. Seven, eight, nine, oh … fight over. That’s the way I see it.”

Not many do, and nor should they. It’s like this: When a fighter such as Mayweather has displayed over time such an incredible aptitude for deflecting pressure and using brilliant strategic talent to beat all brawlers to stand in front of him well enough to win six world titles in five weight classes, it’s not on him to change. It’s on Hatton to verify he is different than the rest.

I can’t see it.

Hatton is 43-0 because his approach — fight everything from the inside, hold and suffocate his opponent, one left hook to the body after another — has yet to be resisted by someone with the skill of Mayweather.

Hatton and his camp might insist there is more to his ability than what he has shown, but you don’t amass that kind of impressive record by hiding much. He has a far better chance of winning by knockout than decision, of discovering the perfect angle at the precise second and catching Mayweather than hoping at least two judges see things his way.

“I have envisioned this fight in my mind a thousand times,” said Billy Graham, Hatton’s trainer. “One guy will always be on the attack, and the other will want to fight from distance. But sooner or later, they’re going to have to stand there and fight. I’m just having a difficult time seeing Floyd outpoint Ricky. I’m not worried about a decision in any way.”

History suggests he should be.

It was at a final news conference Wednesday when a reporter from Britain was asked who he believed would win Saturday.

“I’m hoping (Hatton), but that’s thinking with this,” he said, pointing to his heart.

“This tells me different,” he added, pointing to his head.

It’s the majority opinion for good reason. This might not be “Rocky” for excitement, but it should rival the first movie in one way: If at some point, Michael Buffer and his booming voice is handed a scorecard to announce a decision, the champion will raise his arms last.

Just like always.

Ed Graney’s column is published Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. He can be reached at 383-4618 or egraney@reviewjournal.com.