If Tom Brady is healthy, Patriots should return to Super Bowl
Assuming Tom Brady’s injured hand doesn’t affect him in a major way Sunday in the AFC championship game, the Patriots should advance to defend their Super Bowl championship.
But bettors beware. Many of us thought the spread might rise to Patriots minus-10. But instead, word of a glove on Brady’s throwing hand brought immediate money in on the Jaguars, and the line dropped from 9 to 7½.
The Patriots’ offense relies on Brady’s ability to complete short passes to a variety of receivers in space. New England ranked eighth in the league with 2,019 yards after the catch, which translates to 44 percent of Brady’s yardage. They will attack the Jaguars with James White, Brandin Cooks, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola.
Of course, tight end Rob Gronkowski presents an entirely different problem. I can’t shake the image of Gronk trampling Titans defensive backs last week. I could see that happening against the Jaguars, whose vaunted “Sacksonville” defense didn’t show me any sign last week that it has the tools to stop him.
Linebacker Telvin Smith was burned repeatedly by Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and most likely will struggle against Gronkowski. Some have suggested that cornerback Jalen Ramsey should cover Gronkowski, but that would throw the Jaguars defense askew.
They’ll have to use a linebacker or safety on Gronkowski, and that’s a huge advantage for the Patriots.
It’s unusual that two teams in a conference championship have basically played the same teams down the stretch. The Patriots and Jaguars have dealt with Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Buffalo since the middle of last month. In all three instances, the Patriots played much better than the Jaguars.
You have to respect Bill Belichick’s leadership qualities. Not only is the Patriots coach dealing with Brady’s injured hand, but he has two coordinators — Josh McDaniels on offense and Matt Patricia on defense — who appear headed for Indianapolis and Detroit as head coaches after the season. Belichick preaches that he will do whatever is best for the team, meaning he has his arms wrapped around this situation.
NFC championship game
The Vikings’ offense is clearly superior to the Eagles’ offense. Yes, Case Keenum struggled against the Saints last week. But then came the Minneapolis Miracle when he found Stefon Diggs, who got plenty of help not just from a missed tackle but when one New Orleans defensive back took out another on that final play.
It’s not only Diggs. There’s Adam Thielen on the other side. With 155 catches for 2,125 yards and 12 touchdowns, these two are as good a combination of wide receivers as you’ll find anywhere. Add tight end Kyle Rudolph and underrated running back Latavius Murray, and it all starts to add up for the Vikings offense.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson deserves a lot of credit for managing backup quarterback Nick Foles past the Falcons last week. But after reviewing that game, it says here the Falcons lost it more than the Eagles won it. Last week, I liked the Eagles to win against a Falcons team that hung in there and played well. This week, Philadelphia will face a Minnesota team that has a few more weapons.
History does favor the Vikings in one sense. Since the 1997 season, the NFC championship has seen the visiting team favored four times, and the visitor has gone 3-1 straight up and against the spread.
The intangibles — a dome visitor playing outside, a raucous home crowd — are clearly on Philadelphia’s side. But the Vikings have played in cold weather and on the road, so I’m leaning toward Minnesota, which is favored by 3 points. Vikings win, 23-17.
Brent Musburger’s betting column appears Saturday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. His show on the Vegas Stats &Information Network can be heard on SiriusXM 204 and livestreamed at reviewjournal.com/vegas-stats-information-network.
