Broncos look like good bet to end Chiefs’ cover streak
Finding football betting gold is as difficult as discovering the real nuggets, but there are two football bets this fall that are ringing the cash register at 100 percent.
1. Alabama is perfect vs. the first-half spread. VSiN’s Matt Youmans picked up on this trend early this season, and it has paid off every time. The only problem is the Crimson Tide is idle this week, awaiting their showdown with Louisiana State in Baton Rouge. So we’ll have to wait another week to write that ticket again.
2. The 6-1 Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0 vs. the spread. Their 43-40 loss to New England was as close to an ATS loss as you can get. They were 3½-point underdogs.
The Chiefs opened as 10-point favorites at home for Sunday’s rematch against the Denver Broncos. That’s where the static line was set for the Westgate SuperContest. The number has moved to 9½ and, according to Covers.com, 60 percent of the action has gone to the Chiefs.
However, if you recall that first meeting Week 4 on a Monday night in Denver, the Chiefs scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win 27-23, so you might want to consider backing the Broncos this week.
In that comeback, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes proved that he is for real. He faced a third-and-16 early in the fourth quarter and threw to Tyreek Hill for 15 yards and then to Kareem Hunt for 22 to convert on fourth down. Six plays later, the Chiefs finished a 75-yard scoring drive and pulled within three points.
The Kansas City defense then forced Case Keenum into a three-and-out. On the next drive, the Chiefs had a second-and-30. Mahomes threw to Demarcus Robinson for 23 yards and then to Demetrius Harris for 35. Four plays later, Hunt rushed for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:39 left. When linebacker Justin Houston broke up a fourth-down pass with 12 seconds left, the Chiefs had their win.
The Chiefs have covered 11 straight regular-season games. In anybody’s NFL power rankings, Kansas City would rate just below the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots. This is a team capable of making a Super Bowl run. But 9½ or 10 points are a huge handicap in the betting world.
Here are three reasons to like the Broncos:
1. They covered against the Rams at home two weeks ago in a 23-20 loss.
2. They have had three extra days of rest since burying the Cardinals 45-10 on Oct. 18.
3. Those two ATS wins came after a Week 5 meltdown — a 34-16 road loss to the New York Jets. But remember this about the Broncos: They usually don’t play well in Eastern time zone games.
Obviously, Denver is much better at Mile High. But still, catching 9½ or 10 points in Kansas City in a divisional matchup with a rested team is something to consider.
I get it if you want to ride the streak. And even if it gets as gusty in Kansas City as forecasters are suggesting, don’t forget that Mahomes played at Texas Tech. Anyone who has been to Lubbock knows about the wind there, and Mahomes conquered it.
But don’t forget that Houston is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and that should make you think twice about the Chiefs defense.
My advice is to wait until Sunday morning to see if the public money continues to come in on the Chiefs. If the line moves back to 10, jump on it and take the points with Denver.
Brent Musburger’s betting column appears Saturday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. His show on the Vegas Stats & Information Network can be heard on SiriusXM 204 and livestreamed at reviewjournal.com/vegas-stats-information-network.
