New England still safest pick

At some point, Tom Brady will have an off day, and the New England Patriots will labor to win a game. Trying to guess when that will happen might be pointless.

The betting public sometimes gets criticized for backing too many big favorites, but every wager on the Patriots can be defined as smart money.

New England improved to 6-0 straight up and against the spread by demoralizing the Dallas Cowboys in a 48-27 win Sunday. Brady passed for 388 yards and five touchdowns.

The NFL regular season’s most anticipated matchup — one hyped as a potential Super Bowl preview — generated an impressive amount of business for sports books on a day when the rest of the schedule was unattractive.

“It was like booking a playoff game,” Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “It was the Cowboys-Patriots game and everything else. Luckily, this wasn’t the Super Bowl. It wasn’t a very good game for us. A majority of the biggest bets were on the Patriots.”

New England, which closed as a 51/2-point road favorite, has won its six games by an average of 23 points.

The Cowboys, anointed the favorites in the NFC, dropped to 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread.

As soon as the game ended, the Hilton lowered the Patriots’ odds to win the Super Bowl from 11-10 to even money. Kornegay said wagers on New England forced the adjustment.

The Hilton also changed its Super Bowl futures line, bumping the AFC up two points to a 101/2-point favorite.

“If this game was played next week, what kind of action do you think we would get? The best team in the AFC just beat the best team in the NFC by 21 points on their home field,” Kornegay said. “The Patriots have looked that dominant. But, at the same time, you can’t overadjust and have a knee-jerk reaction to a line like this that’s so far in the future.”

The Hilton also posted a proposition on whether New England will finish the regular season 16-0. Betting “No” is minus-700, and betting “Yes” returns plus-500.

The Patriots’ toughest remaining game is at Indianapolis on Nov. 4. As for other potential hurdles, they host Pittsburgh on Dec. 9 and visit the New York Giants in the regular-season finale on Dec. 29.

“Of all the teams we thought might go undefeated over the past two decades, this team could actually do it,” Kornegay said. “The Patriots could run the table.”

Brady continued his phenomenal play against the Cowboys, completing 31 of 46 passes. He connected with Wes Welker 11 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns, while Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth also had one touchdown catch apiece.

Kornegay said his book lost all three of its biggest decisions in Week 6. New England at minus-51/2 for the game and minus-2 for the second half were two of those decisions. The Patriots outscored Dallas 27-10 in the second half.

The public won the other major decision by backing Philadelphia in its 16-9 victory over the New York Jets. The Eagles opened as 21/2-point road favorites, and the line closed at 41/2.

In the late game, New Orleans’ first win of the season, 28-17 over the Seattle Sea-hawks, meant another loss for the books. The Saints closed as 6-point road underdogs.

Carolina, Kansas City and Minnesota also posted straight-up wins as underdogs.

Looking ahead to Week 7, New England opened as a 14-point road favorite over the winless Miami Dolphins.

In other games, Dallas opened as a 10-point home favorite over Minnesota, and Pittsburgh is a 31/2-point road favorite over Denver.