New England rewriting rules
Betting on big favorites in the NFL is usually bankroll suicide. Betting on the New England Patriots as big favorites is a different story.
With quarterback Tom Brady playing flawlessly and coach Bill Belichick working his strategical wizardry, the Patriots are rewriting time-tested handicapping rules.
New England has covered eight straight regular-season games and has had only one close call during that stretch.
That could change today, when the Patriots visit the Dallas Cowboys in the most anticipated showdown of the season. The Patriots are 6-point favorites, and the total is 521/2.
“You would think with all the hype surrounding this game that it’s late January,” handicapper Joseph D’Amico said. “The Super Bowl is about four months away, but it is certainly conceivable that it will be New England and Dallas facing each other in the big game.”
The Patriots are 5-0 straight up and against the spread. They have been favored by a total of 50 points and have won those five games by a total of 117 points.
The Cowboys are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. They won their first four games by a total of 79 points before sneaking out of Buffalo with a one-point victory Monday night.
D’Amico (allamericansports. info) is siding with New England, which has won all five games by at least 17 points.
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is a rising star in the league, but D’Amico is not ready to put Romo in an elite class with Brady.
Both passers have high-profile targets. Romo has Terrell Owens, and Brady has Randy Moss, but that comparison is a landslide so far with Moss’ 34 receptions and seven touchdowns dwarfing Owens’ numbers.
“The edge at quarterback must go to Brady, an experienced leader that always keeps his cool,” D’Amico said. “Romo is steadily maturing, but with his five interceptions on Monday night, he showed a glimpse of the same problems that plagued him last year.”
The Cowboys are at a disadvantage, D’Amico said, with cornerback Anthony Henry out with an ankle injury. The Patriots’ defense is tougher since the return of strong safety Rodney Harrison, who served a four-game suspension.
“New England’s balanced attack on both sides of the ball, along with the inconsistency of Romo, makes the Patriots a strong play,” said D’Amico, who analyzes the rest of today’s Week 6 schedule:
• Cincinnati (-3) at Kansas City — The Bengals are last in the AFC North for one reason — they are all offense and no defense. They allow 152 rushing yards per game and 32.2 points per game. The Chiefs are 11-4-1 against the spread in their last 16 home games.
Look for Pro Bowl running back Larry Johnson to come out of his shell this week and exploit a banged-up Cincinnati defense. Take the points with Kansas City.
• Houston at Jacksonville (-61/2) — The Jaguars offense has started to hit stride. Between running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, who combined for 133 rushing yards last week against the Chiefs, a balanced offense will give the Houston defense problems.
Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard has been efficient, passing for 848 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Expect the Jaguars to win.
• Miami at Cleveland (-41/2) — With quarterback Trent Green suffering a concussion last week, Cleo Lemon will be taking the snaps for the Dolphins. Behind the legs of running back Ronnie Brown, Miami has the best ground game in the league the past three weeks. Unfortunately, Miami’s defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 28.2 points per game and 174.2 rushing yards per game.
The Browns’ Derek Anderson can throw the deep ball, and, with wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow, look for him to do that. Cleveland gets the cover.
• Minnesota at Chicago (-51/2) — This historic rivalry comes to Chicago, where the Vikings have lost six in a row. This is put-up or shut-up time for the defending NFC champion Bears, who got better quarterback play from Brian Griese last week.
With support from the home crowd at Soldier Field, the Bears must get it done. Chicago is the play.
• Philadelphia (-31/2) at N.Y. Jets — This is a difficult game to call. The Jets have won eight of 10 against the Eagles going back to 1998. Injuries have decimated Philadelphia. Chad Pennington can take advantage of a banged-up Eagles secondary that could be without cornerback Lito Sheppard and safety Brian Dawkins. The Eagles offensive line has given up 19 sacks.
This should be decided by a field goal. Take the Jets and the points.
• St. Louis at Baltimore (-91/2) — Last week, without running back Steven Jackson, wideout Isaac Bruce and QB Marc Bulger, the Rams still put up 375 yards and 31 points in a losing effort against Arizona. St. Louis is 3-0 against the spread in the series against Baltimore.
Veteran quarterback Gus Frerotte and running back Brian Leonard are capable of keeping this one close against a Ravens team that is 0-5 against the spread. At plus-91/2, the Rams are a steal.
• Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3) — The Titans are salivating as they bring one of the league’s stingiest defenses into Raymond James Stadium to face the Buccaneers, whose offense is crippled with injuries. Tampa Bay lost starting running back Cadillac Williams for the season to a knee injury and backup Michael Pittman for six to eight weeks with an ankle injury.
Tampa Bay’s defense has yet to face a quarterback as mobile as Vince Young. With a Titans offense that is rushing for 153 yards per game, and a Buccaneers defense that is giving up 124 rushing yards per game, this makes for a mismatch. Tennessee is 13-3 against the spread in its past 16 games. Take the points and win with the Titans.
• Washington at Green Bay (-3) — Brett Favre and the Packers must bounce back after blowing a 10-point halftime lead and losing their first game of the season, 27-20 to the Bears. Green Bay’s 31st-ranked rushing offense is severely overmatched against the Redskins third-ranked defense.
Washington wideout Santana Moss is expected to play, but the other star receiver, Antwaan Randle El, is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Green Bay’s talented cornerbacks will make it tough for Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell and his receivers to repeat the success they had passing last week versus the Lions.
The Redskins are 0-6 against the spread all-time against Green Bay, including 0-5 at Lambeau Field. The Packers will rebound.
• Carolina at Arizona (-41/2) — Both teams spent much of the week trying to overcome quarterback problems. David Carr suffered a back injury in Carolina’s 16-13 victory over New Orleans last week. Carr has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes for 330 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in three games. Backing up Carr is 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde and undrafted rookie Matt Moore.
With Cardinals QB Matt Leinart out for the season with a broken collarbone, Kurt Warner won’t have to share the snaps anymore. Arizona is 4-1 against the spread. Too many injuries make this one too tough to call.
• Oakland at San Diego (-10) — The Chargers finally got their offense going last week with a 41-3 road victory over Denver. San Diego rushed for 214 yards in a joint effort from LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner. Philip Rivers, who in his first four games threw six interceptions and was sacked nine times, had no interceptions and was not sacked last week.
The Raiders, coming off a bye week, possess the league’s top rushing attack at 194.2 yards per game. Oakland’s offense will control the clock and keep it close. The Raiders are a safe bet.
• New Orleans at Seattle (-61/2) — The Saints, at 0-4 straight up and against the spread, have fallen well short of expectations. One of last year’s most explosive offenses, New Orleans has yet to score more than 14 points in any game.
The loss of running back Deuce McAllister could prove fatal for the Saints. Drew Brees, one of the NFL’s top passers a year ago, has only one touchdown against nine interceptions. New Orleans’ defense is getting beat up and it won’t get any better. Go with the Seahawks.
Compiled by Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans.
