UFC Fight Night 93 main card analysis: capsules and betting preview
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A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 93 event in Hamburg, Germany:
Andrei Arlovski (25-12-0, 1 No Contest) vs. Josh Barnett (34-8)
· Class: Heavyweight
· Line: Barnett -150
· Storyline: The former UFC champions were first scheduled to square off in the main event of an Affliction Entertainment card in 2008 before the card was cancelled. Though both veterans are well-traveled in the MMA world, this will be the first time their paths have actually crossed in the cage. Arlovski had been in the midst of a career resurgence, but his momentum has been curtailed by two consecutive knockout losses. The back-to-back defeats have once again given rise to questions about the chin of the 37-year-old Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA product, who has now suffered nine defeats by knockout in his career. Barnett certainly has the power to add to that total. His bigger advantage will be on the ground, however. Barnett should be able to overpower Arlovski and control him on the mat, where he can eventually work a submission. Barnett was uncharacteristically tapped out in his last fight and he would no doubt like to erase that memory by scoring one of his own.
· Pick: Barnett by second-round submission
Alexander Gustafsson (16-4) vs. Jan Blachowicz (19-5)
· Class: Light heavyweight
· Line: Gustafsson -585
· Storyline: The ultra-talented Gustafsson finds himself in the very difficult position of being the odd-man out in the top-heavy 205-pound class. He has dropped three of his last four fights, but all the defeats have come to the three top contenders in the division, Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson. Gustafsson is 8-1 against everyone else since coming to the UFC and should be the far more talented fighter entering this matchup. He’s tall and fast and does a good job using those tools to his advantage. Gustafsson has not fought since a narrow split decision loss to Cormier for the belt in October 2015. He is now healthy and appears focused on earning a third title shot, though a loss to Blachowicz would put him way back in the pecking order. Blachowicz has power and is a capable grappler, but has split four fights in the UFC. If Gustafsson is on his game, he should get back in the win column.
· Pick: Gustafsson by second-round knockout
Ryan Bader (21-5) vs. Ilir Latifi (13-4-0, No Contest)
· Class: Light heavyweight
· Line: Bader -225
· Storyline: Bader, a Reno native and former star wrestler and football player at McQueen High School, was riding high on a five-fight win streak until Johnson obliterated all the momentum with a first-round knockout in January. There’s no shame in that. Johnson has been doing a whole lot of that recently. Latifi has the power to replicate that outcome, though. He had recorded back-to-back knockout wins inside of a minute before a decision victory over Gian Villante in March. Latifi is still best remembered for making his UFC debut on very short notice against Gegard Mousasi in April 2013 in a fight where he was expected to be a sacrificial lamb. Latifi actually represented himself well in that fight, however, lasting all three rounds in a decision loss. He has won five of six fights since then to establish himself as a legitimate force in the division. The line is too high on Bader here as Latifi has a great chance to score the upset.
· Pick: Latifi by first-round knockout
Nick Hein (13-2-0, No Contest) vs. Tae Hyun Bang (18-9)
· Class: Lightweight
· Line: Hein -285
· Storyline: Hein, the local favorite, is 3-1 in the UFC with two previous wins in his native Germany. What he lacks is great finishing skills as all four of his UFC fights have gone the distance and he’s recorded just one knockout victory in 15 professional fights. He does possess great judo skills and is more than willing to grind his way to a victory, though he does have a black belt in jiu-jitsu and had a knack for submission wins before he made it to the UFC. Bang has alternated wins and losses in his UFC career. He is a tall boxer with good power who is coming off a split-decision win over Leo Kuntz in November. Bang needs to keep the fight standing to take advantage of his superior striking skills and substantial reach advantage. Hein knows his best shot in this fight is on the the ground and he will look to get it there early and often.
· Pick: Hein by decision
ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
