UFC Fight Night 83 Main Card Analysis: Capsules and Betting Preview
A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC FIght Night 83 today in Pittsburgh:
Donald Cerrone (28-7-0, 1 No Contest) vs. Alex Oliveira (13-2-1, 1 No Contest)
CLASS: Welterweight
LINE: Cerrone -290
STORYLINE: The biggest storyline going into this fight is that it features two fighters with the same nickname. That doesn’t say much for the main event of this card, but it does have the potential to be a fun fight. “Cowboy” Cerrone moves up to welterweight for the first time after suffering a crushing first-round knockout loss in a lightweight title bout against Rafael dos Anjos in December. Cerrone continues to stumble in big opportunities, but regularly thrashes lesser competition. While “Cowboy” Oliveira would seem to fall into that category, he doesn’t seem to be getting enough respect from the oddsmakers. Oliveira, a former bull rider, has won three straight bouts since dropping his UFC debut. He is a capable and powerful striker that is more than capable of giving Cerrone headaches. Oliveira did take the fight on short notice, which could work against him. His best chance may be to get to the traditionally slow-starting Cerrone early in the fight and it’s probably worth a shot as a longshot bet as Cerrone tries to adjust to fighting at a bigger weight. If Cerrone settles in, however, it could be a tough night for Oliveira.
PICK: Cerrone by decision
Derek Brunson (14-3) vs. Roan Carneiro (20-9)
CLASS: Middleweight
LINE: Brunson -385
STORYLINE: Brunson is an outstanding wrestler who is capable of taking down just about anyone in the middleweight division and smothering them on the ground. He would almost certainly be able to do so against Carneiro in this one, but it’s probably not his best path to victory. Carneiro is very good on the ground and Brunson could be putting himself in a dangerous spot to try to spend the entire fight on the mat. Perhaps more impressive than Brunson’s takedowns is his ability to prevent opponents from getting him to the ground. Brunson should be able to thwart any effort by Carneiro to get the fight to the ground and take advantage of his striking edge. Brunson typically uses his punches to get inside to the clinch and take down opponents. Look for him to instead try to keep more distance in search of a knockout.
PICK: Brunson by first-round knockout
Cody Garbrandt (7-0) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-0)
CLASS: Bantamweight
LINE: Garbrandt -350
STORYLINE: Garbrandt has won back-to-back fights since signing with the UFC and in the process has made himself one of the top prospects in the bantamweight division. Mendes is an insanely skilled grappler whose scheduled UFC debut in January was postponed due to injury. He agreed to step in on short notice to face Garbrandt and tried to cut 26 pounds in less than a week to make weight. Mendes, however, fell short of the goal and missed the mark by six pounds on Saturday. Despite his immense talent and ability on the mat, Mendes probably isn’t ready for this level of fight. It’s an opportunity to showcase a rising star in Garbrandt, a Team Alpha Male product who has been seeking out training at some of the top gyms in the country as he tries to expand his game in preparation to make the leap to the upper echelon of the division. As long as he can stay out of precarious positions on the ground, he should speed right through this test.
PICK: Garbrandt by first-round knockout
Dennis Bermudez (15-5) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-8-2)
CLASS: Featherweight
LINE: Bermudez -365
STORYLINE: Bermudez has hit a rough patch, losing two consecutive bouts after a seven-fight winning streak. He is a very rugged wrestler who has been able to add a fairly powerful striking game and an ability to chop opponents down with strong leg kicks. Kawajiri is fairly similar, though he is getting older at 37 and doesn’t have the endurance to keep up a fast pace for three full rounds. Bermudez’s toughness has been his downfall as he has gotten in trouble by being too lax defensively in his last two fights. Kawajiri could certainly exploit that here. If he can either take or knock Bermudez down, Kawajiri possesses some of the best ground-and-pound in the division. He’ll have to look to do his damage early though as the younger Bermudez should take control as the fight wears on. The line seems greatly out of whack and Kawajiri is a solid underdog play, but in the end Bermudez should find a way to get back in the win column.
PICK: Bermudez by decision
Chris Camozzi (22-10) vs. Joe Riggs (41-16-0, 1 No Contest)
CLASS: Middleweight
LINE: Camozzi -250
STORYLINE: This is an interesting matchup in that neither guy really has any outstanding skills. Both are just incredibly tough and rugged in the cage. While it seems like Riggs has been around forever, he is still just 33 years old. His body has to feel at least 10 years older than that with all the fights and injuries he has been through. Riggs actually dropped the first two fights in his return to the UFC and only got back on the winning track as a result of a disqualification victory in September. Camozzi went through a rough stretch of his own, losing four straight in 2013 and 2014 before being released from the organization. He was brought back after earning two wins on the regional circuit and has split a pair of fights since he was re-signed. Camozzi has never been knocked out in a fight and is a pretty solid defensive fighter. He should be able to avoid enough shots and create enough offense to pick up a second-straight win.
PICK: Camozzi by decision
James Krause (22-7) vs. Shane Campbell (12-3)
CLASS: Lightweight
LINE: Krause -150
STORYLINE: This should come down to which fighter can better implement their style. Campbell comes from a muay Thai background and will prefer to keep the fight standing. Krause is more of a grappler by nature, but surprisingly may have an edge in the striking game when the fight is contested at distance. Campbell doesn’t fit the mold of traditional muay Thai strikers in mixed martial arts as he looks much more comfortable in the clinch than he does in kicking range. He is particularly effective with knees and elbows at close range. Krause certainly has an experience edge, as well. There are a lot of factors favoring Krause, but he is only a slight favorite in this fight. That says a lot about Krause’s inability to live up to his potential as he has gone just 3-3 in the UFC. This may be another winnable opportunity that eludes his grasp.
PICK: Campbell by second-round knockout
— Adam Hill/Las Vegas Review-Journal
