UFC 195 matchups
January 1, 2016 - 11:22 pm
A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 195 today at the MGM Grand Garden:
Robbie Lawler (26-10, 1 No Contest) vs. Carlos Condit (30-8)
CLASS: For Lawler’s welterweight title
LINE: Pick ’em
STORYLINE: While Condit long has been considered one of the top all-around fighters at welterweight, Lawler has seized control of the division. Lawler is a powerful striker who uses his wrestling background mostly to dictate where his fights take place. He’s certainly not the type to go for takedowns and try to grind out the opposition. While Lawler should have a power edge in the standup, Condit is a volume striker with a deep arsenal of attacks when he is at his best. Neither fighter will have a significant reach edge, but Condit should be able to kick from the outside, and that will likely be a major part of his game plan. There is just so much Condit can do well inside the cage. A lot of the same things were said about Rory MacDonald before he challenged for Lawler’s belt in July, however, and Lawler turned him back in one of the most entertaining fights of the year. Condit will find a way to avoid a similar fate.
PICK: Condit by decision
Andrei Arlovski (25-10, 1 NC) vs. Stipe Miocic (13-2)
CLASS: Heavyweight
LINE: Miocic minus-225
STORYLINE: It has been a decade since Arlovski held the UFC heavyweight title, but it certainly can be argued this is the best stretch of his career. Arlovski continues to find a way to win, coming out victorious in all four bouts since returning to the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Two of the performances were spectacular. Arlovski knocked out Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Travis Browne in the first round. His victories over Frank Mir and Brendan Schaub, while not great, resulted in decision wins and have put him in prime position to earn another title shot. Miocic stands in the way and represents a significant challenge. He has a solid background in amateur boxing and was a good collegiate wrestler. Miocic, who was also a baseball player in college, is incredibly athletic. Look for him to fall back on his wrestling, which has been an overlooked aspect of his game in the UFC, to wear down Arlovski and earn his first shot at the belt.
PICK: Miocic by decision
Lorenz Larkin (16-4, 1 NC) vs. Albert Tumenov (16-2)
CLASS: Welterweight
LINE: Tumenov minus-250
STORYLINE: The 24-year-old Tumenov, who is nicknamed “Einstein,” has shown a great deal of promise in winning four straight fights since dropping his UFC debut. His nasty left hook has made him one of the best prospects in the division, but he will be tested against Larkin, a talented and quick kickboxer. Larkin comes in off two consecutive knockout wins, but that’s on the heels of losing four of five fights. He has a wide array of kicks in his arsenal and might be able to keep Tumenov off balance with all the movement he typically displays. Tumenov, who has three knockout wins during his four-fight winning streak, will eventually find Larkin and add to that total.
PICK: Tumenov by third-round knockout
Brian Ortega (9-0, 1 NC) vs. Diego Brandao (24-10)
CLASS: Featherweight
LINE: Ortega minus-190
STORYLINE: Brandao typically doesn’t have much interest in defending much of what his opponents throw. He is fairly single-minded in moving forward and trying to finish fights as quickly as possible. That just may work if he is able to overwhelm Ortega, a high-level grappler who is still gaining experience in the octagon. The problem is that Brandao could be in trouble even if he’s able to knock down Ortega. Ortega is more than capable of producing offense off his back and will be comfortable on the ground. Ortega may want to test himself for a bit on the feet, but his best path to victory is on the mat, and at some point the fight will get there.
PICK: Ortega by second-round submission
Abel Trujillo (12-7, 1 NC) vs. Tony Sims (12-3)
CLASS: Lightweight
LINE: Sims minus-145
STORYLINE: This should be a fun fight. Sims was a successful amateur boxer who will try to use his unpredictable movement and technical boxing to pick Trujillo apart. Conversely, Trujillo likes to throw every punch as if he’s trying to make his opponent’s head pop off. Trujillo does have a wrestling background, but he has all but abandoned that aspect during his time in the UFC. Sims showed he could be susceptible to takedowns during a decision loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier in August. There is a slim chance Trujillo, who is in need of a win after back-to-back losses to strong competition, could try to follow that blueprint. More likely, he will employ his favored approach and look to swing for the fences. If he catches Sims, it could be a short night.
PICK: Trujillo by first-round knockout