UFC 146 CAPSULES
Junior dos Santos (champion, 14-1) vs. Frank Mir (16-5)
■ CLASS: For heavyweight title
■ LINE: dos Santos minus-480
■ STORYLINE: The fighters have no secret game plan in this one. Dos Santos is one of the heavyweight division’s most polished boxers and has 10 first-round knockouts. Mir’s eight submissions in UFC bouts is a heavyweight record. The Las Vegan believes he can reduce the champion’s knockout power by taking him deep into the fight. Mir says dos Santos’ power comes from the speed with which he moves into his shots, so his plan appears to be to make the fight last long and get it to the ground. That might work for a bit, but dos Santos is dangerous. Watch for Mir to try to pull guard if he gets in trouble, but don’t expect dos Santos to play that game. While dos Santos is likely to find a way to land a big shot and finish the fight, Mir probably is the only way to go from a betting standpoint at such long odds.
■ PICK: Dos Santos by second-round knockout
Cain Velasquez (9-1) vs. Antonio Silva (16-3)
■ CLASS: Heavyweight
■ LINE: Velasquez minus-375
■ STORYLINE: A win over the legendary Fedor Emelianenko in early 2011 greatly boosted Silva’s stock, but the former EliteXC heavyweight champion makes his UFC debut off a loss to Daniel Cormier in the semifinals of the Strikeforce heavyweight tournament in September. The problem for “Bigfoot” is that Velasquez is similar to Cormier, an elite wrestler with speed and good power in his hands. Velasquez is a major talent, but he must shake off the first loss of his career and regain the confidence that carried him to the heavyweight title. This is his first appearance since he was knocked out by dos Santos in 64 seconds in November. As long as Velasquez is in a positive mental state, he should put away the Brazilian. Silva says he would like to get the fight to the ground, which is easier said than done against the former two-time All-American wrestler.
■ PICK: Velasquez by third-round knockout
Roy Nelson (17-7) vs. Dave Herman (21-3)
■ CLASS: Heavyweight
■ LINE: Nelson minus-205
■ STORYLINE: This fight that pits two of the sport’s most offbeat personalities in what figures to be an entertaining bout. UFC president Dana White isn’t a fan of either, so they could be fighting for a job. Nelson, a Las Vegan, could be in more jeopardy. He has dropped three of his past four, though two of the losses came against dos Santos and Mir. Nelson will be well served to try to take Herman down and hold him there. Though Nelson long has been criticized for his physique, it is possible his cardiovascular fitness is better than that of his opponent, and he might be able to wear out Herman. There is the possibility of an entertaining first round, followed by sloppiness if the fight wears on and conditioning is tested. Herman has knockout power, but Nelson’s chin is sensational.
■ PICK: Nelson by decision
Stipe Miocic (8-0) vs. Shane del Rosario (11-0)
■ CLASS: Heavyweight
■ LINE: Miocic minus-160
■ STORYLINE: Not only could this be one of the card’s most action-packed fights, it could end up being one of the most important to the division’s future. The matchup of unbeaten prospects will determine who takes a big step up the rankings and who will have more work to do to get there. Del Rosario returns from more than a year out of action after a drunk driver struck his car. He has a dazzling array of strikes, particularly his variety of kicks. Only one opponent has made it out of the first round. The biggest question marks around del Rosario entering his UFC debut are how healthy his back is after the accident and what impact the layoff will have on his game. Miocic was a top college wrestler and a talented baseball player. He also was a Golden Gloves champion in boxing before entering mixed martial arts and going on a big run. Del Rosario might need a round or two to get settled in, but his standup skills are excellent.
■ PICK: Del Rosario by third-round knockout
Stefan Struve (27-5) vs. Lavar Johnson (17-5)
■ CLASS: Heavyweight
■ LINE: Struve minus-125
■ STORYLINE: Johnson is on quite a run. After getting the call to debut on the undercard of January’s UFC on Fox card in Chicago, where he knocked out Joey Beltran in the first round, Johnson returned to knock out Pat Barry on the main card of the Fox show on May 5. Now, he comes back three weeks later to face Struve. Johnson’s streak might end here. Struve is 24 but already has 10 UFC fights and is getting stronger each time out. If he can stay at a distance and keep Johnson from landing a big shot early, the 6-foot-11-inch Struve should take control. Johnson was in trouble momentarily against Barry’s limited ground skills, and Struve is superior to Barry. Expect Struve to make quick work of Johnson if and when this fight hits the mat. The only question will be whether he can get it there.
■ PICK: Struve by first-round submission
ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
