UFC 143 ANALYSIS

Nick Diaz (26-7, 1 No Contest)
vs. Carlos Condit (27-5)

■ CLASS: For interim welterweight title

■ LINE: Diaz minus-190

■ STORYLINE: This is one of the most anticipated fights of 2012 in terms of potential for action. Both fighters are aggressive and talented in the standup and well-versed and accomplished on the ground. Condit said nobody wants to get in a “face-punching contest with Nick Diaz,” but that’s how many of his fights evolve. Diaz is a volume puncher who will walk down just about anybody. Condit probably has more power in his hands. Both have been champions in other organizations and have great endurance, so the spotlight or the five-round distance shouldn’t be an issue for either. Expect plenty of big shots to be landed, but both Diaz and Condit have shown very strong chins. Diaz, who has won 11 straight fights, will be busier and that usually wins the favor of the judges.

■ PICK: Diaz by decision

Roy Nelson (16-6)
vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1)

■ CLASS: Heavyweight

■ LINE: Werdum minus-150

■ STORYLINE: Nelson, who snapped a two-fight losing streak with a knockout of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic in October, again looks in improved shape. Werdum, one of the top jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport, returns to the UFC after finding his greatest success in Strikeforce with a submission win over Fedor Emelianenko. Nelson has a shockingly good ground game, but he is not likely to test it against Werdum. The Las Vegan has strong enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing if he wants, and he will probably do that and test Werdum’s chin with his powerful overhand right. Werdum is confident in his standup after doing well in a loss to feared striker Alistair Overeem in his last bout, but it is not really a strength. Nelson knows where his advantage lies.

■ PICK: Nelson by second-round knockout

Josh Koscheck (16-5)
vs. Mike Pierce (13-4)

■ CLASS: Welterweight

■ LINE: Koscheck minus-230

■ STORYLINE: This is a big step up for Pierce, who has not appeared on the main card of a pay-per-view event in more than two years. It’s one more chance to make the leap to true contender status in the crowded welterweight division. This is a battle of two wrestlers, which often turns into a standup battle. That would favor Koscheck, and while he has power, Pierce never has been finished in his career. Koscheck seems to be talking himself into being motivated for this bout. Though he is the notorious trash talker, he has accused the mild-mannered Pierce of stepping over the line with prefight comments about Koscheck being despised by fans, a seemingly fair assessment. Look for Koscheck to put Pierce in trouble at some point and earn a tight decision.

■ PICK: Koscheck by decision

Renan Barao (27-1, 1 No Contest)
vs. Scott Jorgensen (13-4)

■ CLASS: Bantamweight

■ LINE: Barao minus-230

■ STORYLINE: Jorgensen has won seven of his last eight fights, with the only loss since 2009 coming by decision to champion Dominick Cruz. Jorgensen is an excellent wrestler with a strong ground game and improving striking ability. He faces a stiff test against Barao, who has won an incredible 27 straight fights since losing his MMA debut by split decision in 2005. Bareo is solid in the standup, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is phenomenal on the ground. He has submitted three of four opponents since making his U.S. debut in World Extreme Cagefighting. This fight has explosive potential — and title implications for the winner. Barao might have a little bit too much for Jorgensen.

■ PICK: Barao by second-round submission

Ed Herman (19-7)
vs. Clifford Starks (8-0)

■ CLASS: Middleweights

■ LINE: Herman minus-275

■ STORYLINE: Starks is another in a long line of Arizona State wrestlers to make the move to MMA. He was impressive in his UFC debut in October with a decision win over Dustin Jacoby, but Herman is far more experienced. Herman has looked sensational in two fights since returning from a serious knee injury sustained during a fight against Aaron Simpson in 2009. He missed nearly two years, but knocked out Tim Credeur in 48 seconds in his return in June, then submitted Kyle Noke in the first round in August. Herman has power, but his excellent submission game matches up very well with Starks’ strength as a wrestler.

■ PICK: Herman by third-round submission

ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL