UFC 137 ANALYSIS

Nick Diaz (25-7) vs. BJ Penn (16-7-2)

■ CLASS: Welterweight

■ LINE: Penn minus-130

■ STORYLINE: Penn can draw confidence from the fact he is 3-0 against the three common opponents each has fought, owning victories over Takanori Gomi, Diego Sanchez and Sean Sherk. Diaz is 1-2 against those opponents, defeating Gomi in a fight that later was changed to a no-contest. Those fights are well in the past. Diaz is on a 10-fight winning streak outside the UFC and ready to take the next step in his career now that he has returned. Penn has become far too reliant on his boxing in recent bouts and is prone to cardio issues, Diaz’s biggest strengths. Penn calls Diaz the best boxer in MMA, and with the excellent ground game of both fighters, this well could be a stand-up affair. Both fighters are difficult to finish.

■ PICK: Diaz by decision

Matt Mitrione (5-0) vs. Cheick Kongo (16-6-2)

■ CLASS: Heavyweight

■ LINE: Mitrione minus-125

■ STORYLINE: There is little mystery to this fight. Both guys like to stand and trade shots, and this will quickly become a slugfest. While it’s a big step up in competition for “Meathead” Mitrione, he has shown a pretty solid chin. Kongo, on the other hand, is vulnerable to a big shot. Mitrione at least hinted he would go to the floor if necessary to grind out a victory if Kongo gains an advantage in the stand-up, saying he would take it down and “get (Kongo) pregnant.” Kongo is a more skilled striker, but Mitrione, a former NFL player, is incredibly quick and agile. Mitrione is 5-0 with four knockouts. Look for the Purdue graduate to add to both those lists.

■ PICK: Mitrione by second-round knockout

Roy Nelson (15-6) vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2)

■ CLASS: Heavyweight

■ LINE: Nelson minus-260

■ STORYLINE: It is tempting to take a shot on “Cro Cop” at such a big underdog price, but it has been awhile since he has shown the skills that made him a superstar. He has won only twice in his past six fights, and neither of the wins was particularly impressive. Nelson hasn’t been much better in dropping back-to-back fights, to Junior dos Santos and Frank Mir. The Mir loss was particularly troubling, as Nelson showed serious cardio issues. His overhand right could be an effective weapon in this fight, just as it was against the taller Stefan Struve. Nelson is probably too big a favorite to bet him in this spot, but he appears to be in better shape and should have a big advantage in takedowns and on the ground.

■ PICK: Nelson by decision

Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curran (33-13-1)

■ CLASS: Bantamweight

■ LINE: Jorgensen minus-410

■ STORYLINE: Jorgensen has won six of his past seven fights, losing to Dominick Cruz in a World Extreme Cagefighting title bout last year. He is well rounded, but is likely to rely on his stand-up here against a talented jiu-jitsu practitioner. Curran has fought in many organizations and, at age 34, returns to the UFC for what he said is his last real shot at the big-time. While he has plenty of wins, Curran has struggled against top competition. He lost his past four fights in the WEC, his only appearance in the Pride Fighting Championships and his only UFC bout, in 2004. The number is far too high to warrant a bet on Jorgensen, but his all-around edge should carry him to a victory.

■ PICK: Jorgensen by decision

Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1)

■ CLASS: Featherweight

■ LINE: Hioki minus-325

■ STORYLINE: Hioki’s phenomenal skills are unquestioned. He is ranked among the top three featherweights in just about every world ranking and is 12-1-1 in his past 14 fights, competing in his native Japan against some of the best fighters in the world. Half of his 24 wins are by submission, but Hioki also has recorded four knockouts. His UFC debut has been long anticipated, and he has a big talent edge over Roop. Hioki, however, must avoid adding his name to the list of Japanese stars who struggle to adjust to the UFC stage. Japanese fighters’ poor track record in this situation might warrant an underdog bet on Roop, though Hioki should find a way to win.

■ PICK: Hioki by third-round submission

COMPILED BY ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL