Preview capsules for UFC Fight Night 100
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 100 MATCHUPS
A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 100 card in Sao Paulo, Brazil:
Ryan Bader (22-5) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-7)
· CLASS: Light heavyweight
· LINE: Bader -340
· STORYLINE: Bader earned a unanimous decision victory over Nogueira back in 2010. That fight is largely irrelevant at this point. The Reno native has made a big run in the division, winning six of his last seven fights as he has evolved into a complete mixed martial artist. Nogueira has sharp boxing skills and has a propensity for big upsets. There is good value in taking him at such a big underdog price here. Bader, however, has made huge strides since the first meeting when he already came out on top.
· PICK: Bader by decision
Thomas Almeida (21-1) vs. Albert Morales (6-0-1)
· CLASS: Bantamweight
· LINE: Almeida -310
· STORYLINE: Almeida was one of the top prospects in the sport until he was knocked out in the first round of a bout against Cody Garbrandt in May. There’s no shame in that. It was just another in a growing list of early stoppage wins for the unbeaten Garbrandt. While Almeida’s gaudy record doesn’t look as impressive with the zero gone, his 21-fight winning streak was still quite a feat. He will look to bounce back against Morales, who debuted in the UFC with a draw against Alejandro Perez in September. Perez would’ve won the fight had he not hit Morales after the bell in the second round. This may be far too big of a step up for Morales.
· PICK: Almeida by first-round knockout
Claudia Gadelha (13-2) vs. Cortney Casey (6-3)
· CLASS: Women’s strawweight
· LINE: Gadelha -450
· STORYLINE: There is little doubt at this point that Gadelha is the second-best fighter in the women’s strawweight division. She had two very narrow losses to champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, including in her last fight in July. Gadelha has changed camps as she once again sets her sights on scoring a couple of victories in hopes of getting another shot at the belt. She is now training at the famed camp of Greg Jackson camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico and will look to show what she has learned. After dropping her first two fights in the UFC, Casey has responded with two quick finishes and is proving to be a legitimate talent. Gadelha is just on another level.
· PICK: Gadelha by second-round knockout
Thales Leites (26-6) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (18-1)
· CLASS: Middleweight
· LINE: Leites -170
· STORYLINE: Leites has lost just twice over the last six years and both were two elite UFC middleweights. He dropped a split decision to now-champion Michael Bisping and then lost a unanimous decision to top contender Gegard Mousasi. Leites has always been an elite jiu-jitsu practitioner, but his great run has coincided with his increased comfort in the striking department. While Jotko has been successful, he has struggled to finish fights. All four of his UFC wins had gone the distance before he knocked out Tamdan McCrory in just 59 seconds in June. It may be a sign that Jotko is ready to take a step forward. This is a huge opportunity for Jotko and he has a great chance to win as long as he can deal with what will be a very hostile crowd.
· PICK: Jotko by second-round knockout
Warlley Alves (11-1) vs. Kamaru Usman (8-1)
· CLASS: Welterweight
· LINE: Usman -195
· STORYLINE: Usman is a matchup nightmare for just about everyone in the welterweight division. He is an incredibly aggressive wrestler who has no problem taking down his opponents and grinding them into the mat for 15 minutes. The Season 21 champion on “The Ultimate Fighter” has won seven straight fights, including four since entering the UFC. Alves won Season 3 on ‘TUF Brazil,’ and is coming off the first loss of his career to Bryan Barberena in May. He is a submission ace, but Usman is relentless and won’t give him room on the ground to work his jiu-jitsu.
· PICK: Usman by decision
Sergio Moraes (10-3-1) vs. Zak Ottow (14-3)
· CLASS: Welterweight
· LINE: Moraes -165
· STORYLINE: Moraes won a jiu-jitsu world championship in 2008 and has used that base to carve out a niche for himself in the UFC. Moraes had won four straight fights before a split draw against Luan Chagas in May. Ottow burst on the scene with a split-decision win against veteran Josh Burkman in October and then accepted this fight on short notice, replacing Michael Graves. The matchup is particularly difficult because while Ottow’s ground skills are his strength, Moraes is on a different level.
· PICK: Moraes by second-round submission
