Here’s what you should expect from each bout at UFC 197
A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 197 on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden:
Jon Jones (21-1) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (19-7)
• CLASS: For the interim light heavyweight title
• LINE: Jones minus-600
• STORYLINE: There are several reasons to think Jones, the best mixed martial artist on the planet, could be vulnerable in this fight. First of all, he has not fought in more than 15 months and has said he’s concerned about a slow start. The reason for the layoff also could be a factor in his performance, as Jones was stripped of the light heavyweight title last year when he endured legal issues. Now that so much of his private life has become public, it could be interesting to see how it affects the mental aspect of his game that helped set him apart from his competition. Plus, Jones was all set to fight archrival and light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier today. It’s difficult to believe Jones is as motivated to fight the lesser-known Saint Preux, with whom he has no personal beef. If Jones is off his game, Saint Preux is a big, athletic fighter with plenty of ability to make him pay. Yet Jones is still a big favorite, and with good reason. He’s just that talented and dominant in the octagon. Jones might start slowly, but he will prove there is still a big gap between him and the rest of the division despite the layoff.
• PICK: Jones by second-round submission
Demetrious Johnson (22-2-1) vs. Henry Cejudo (10-0)
• CLASS: For Johnson’s flyweight title
• LINE: Johnson minus-425
• STORYLINE: This is a tougher matchup for Johnson than the line would indicate. Cejudo is unbeaten as a professional after becoming the youngest American to win an Olympic gold medal in wrestling in 2008. If anyone is going to truly test Johnson’s sensational takedown defense, it would be Cejudo. But Johnson has been so dominant in the flyweight division. His incredible speed and movement have kept opponents off-balance and guessing for almost every minute of his seven straight title defenses. The problem Cejudo might have is that he hasn’t shown the ability to finish a fight. His past six fights, including all four since signing with the UFC, have gone the distance. He is coming off a split-decision victory over Jussier Formiga that slowed some of the talk that he might be the one flyweight who could test Johnson. He still might be worth a bet at this price, but it’s tough to pick against “Mighty Mouse” until someone pushes him.
• PICK: Johnson by decision
Anthony Pettis (18-4) vs. Edson Barboza (16-4)
• CLASS: Lightweight
• LINE: Pettis minus-170
• STORYLINE: Stylistically, this might be the fight that fans are most looking forward to on the card. Pettis and Barbosa are talented and athletic strikers who are willing to throw punches and kicks from any angle. They also are extremely creative in their attacks. Pettis is a former champion in the division who is looking to get back on track after two consecutive losses. He insists he isn’t feeling the pressure, but it would be difficult not to at this point. Another defeat would drop him well off the radar in the division. Barbosa would appear to be a perfect opponent for Pettis to get back on track. When Pettis has had trouble, it mostly has been with wrestlers trying to take him down and limit his ability to take advantage of his athleticism. Barboza won’t do that. Pettis spent three weeks training at Greg Jackson’s gym in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and says he learned a great deal about the sport just through his conversations with the trainer. A refocused Pettis could be bad news for Barboza.
• PICK: Pettis by decision
Robert Whittaker (16-4) vs. Rafael Natal (21-6-1)
• CLASS: Middleweight
• LINE: Whittaker minus-305
• STORYLINE: Whittaker, a 25-year-old Australian, has been on an absolute tear. He has won four consecutive fights overall, including three spectacular performances since moving up to middleweight. After back-to-back knockouts of Clint Hester and Brad Tavares, Whittaker won an impressive unanimous decision over Uriah Hall to secure his spot in the division’s top 10. Natal will offer a stiff test, however. The well-rounded veteran also enters on a four-fight winning streak, though his run includes two split-decision wins. A victory over Natal will push Whittaker into the upper echelon of contenders.
• PICK: Whittaker by decision
Yair Rodriguez (7-1) vs. Andre Fili (15-3)
• CLASS: Featherweight
• LINE: Rodriguez minus-150
• STORYLINE: Rodriguez is an outstanding prospect with a flashy offensive game. The UFC is desperately hoping he finally will be the star that puts the organization over in Mexico, a market that has been much slower to embrace mixed martial arts than most believed. Because his success could be so important, he has been brought along with patience. Now the 23-year-old former winner of “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” will face a tough test against a fellow hot prospect. Fili has honed his skills at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, with some of the sport’s best wrestlers. It would seem wrestling would be the best way to neutralize Rodriguez, so even though Fili prefers to throw hands, it will be interesting to see how much he is learning. Fili will look to close distance and keep the pressure on Rodriguez to prevent him from the flashy attacks he prefers.
• PICK: Fili by decision
