Jaguars appear to have playoff-foe Steelers’ number

Despite their success, running back Fred Taylor and the Jacksonville Jaguars keep a low profile. In terms of respect, the Jaguars always feel like underdogs.

Jacksonville finished the regular season 11-5, but had no starters voted to the Pro Bowl. Taylor is expected to go for the first time as an injury replacement for Willie Parker of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Without Parker, the Steelers are stumbling into the playoffs as 21/2-point home underdogs to the Jaguars in an AFC wild-card matchup Saturday.

“No team in the NFL playoffs, including New England, is playing better than Jacksonville, and it is lost on no one that the Jaguars seem to have some kind of whammy on Pittsburgh,” handicapper Kelso Sturgeon (kelsosports handicapping.com) said.

Taylor rushed for 147 yards and the winning touchdown, and David Garrard passed for three scores in Jacksonville’s 29-22 victory at Pittsburgh on Dec. 16.

The teams have played once in each of the past three seasons, and the Jaguars won and covered every time. In the eight meetings between the teams since 2000, Jacksonville is 5-3 straight up and 7-1 against the spread.

Sturgeon said the loss of Parker, fourth in the league in rushing with 1,316 yards, should be too much for the Steelers (10-6) to overcome.

Pittsburgh must rely heavily on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. In a season-ending loss at Baltimore, Roethlisberger rested and Najeh Davenport rushed for just 27 yards on 12 carries.

“The Steelers, a traditional running team, must try to beat Jacksonville with the pass. Parker is out and Davenport can’t fill his shoes, as he showed last week,” Sturgeon said.

“This puts Pittsburgh’s chances squarely and exclusively on the arm of Roethlisberger, and my money says a team can’t change overnight from a running team to a passing team and make it work.”

The Jaguars are solid defensively and run-oriented on offense, with Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew making up maybe the best running back duo in the league.

Taylor had five consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts before sitting out the last game of the season. He finished ninth in the NFL with 1,202 yards rushing and averaged 5.4 yards per carry.

“Jacksonville is healthy, has the perfect mix of running and passing in its offense and plays great defense,” Sturgeon said. “It also is of note Pittsburgh has lost three of its last four games while Jacksonville has gone 6-2 in the second half of the season, with three of those wins against playoff teams.

“I look for the Jaguars to use a very disciplined offense to hold on to the ball, control the clock as they have done game after game, limit Pittsburgh’s offensive opportunities and grind out a fourth straight win against the Steelers.”

The Steelers opened as 1-point favorites at some sports books.

“I think these are great playoff matchups,” MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker said. “The team I think really looks good is Jacksonville. But it’s going to be hard to go to Pittsburgh twice in a three-week span and win.”

Seattle is a 3-point home favorite over Washington in the NFC wild-card game Saturday. The Seahawks opened as high as 5-point favorites.

“The Seahawks haven’t got much respect the whole season, and I think deservedly so,” Walker said.

Betting underdogs is usually a solid strategy in the NFL, but this season was a little different. Favorites finished 128-118-7 against the spread.

The Green Bay Packers, seeded second in the NFC, posted the league’s best spread record at 12-3-1. The Jaguars were next at 11-5.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2907.