Hill: What would it actually cost Raiders to trade into top 3?
It’s a popular opinion among Raiders fans to want the organization to trade up in April’s draft to select one of the top three quarterback prospects.
There is a good reason for such a desire. It’s perhaps the most important position in all of sports, and the Raiders need to find their cornerstone piece to build around.
But at what cost? It’s worth exploring exactly what the price of moving up into the top three of the draft would be.
And let’s narrow it down even further. Louisiana State’s Jayden Daniels is the coveted prize, so the Raiders may have to go all the way up to No. 2.
Of course, anything can happen. Daniels or even North Carolina’s Drake Maye could slip all the way to where the Raiders sit at No. 13. Or they could prefer someone like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and not have to trade at all.
But for the sake of this argument, let’s assume they need to trade up to No. 2.
The old Jimmy Johnson trade chart was the league standard for many years, and it has the No. 2 pick valued at 2,600 points. All eight picks owned by the Raiders add up to a value of just 1,931, including the No. 13 pick at 1,150.
Rich Hill’s chart, which tends to be more representative of modern draft values, has the No. 2 pick valued at 717 and the No. 13 pick at 335. The Raiders’ entire draft is worth 585.
So they have some work to do to put together an enticing package. Future picks will of course have to be included, and those tend to be significantly lessened in value.
And in reality, the internal charts teams use are quite different than the standard models. Plus, the value of those prime picks goes up based on how coveted the players at the top of the draft are and how many teams are in on the bidding.
If the Bears (No. 1 pick), Commanders (No. 2) or Patriots (No. 3) let it be known they are open for business, suitors will come in hot and heavy.
So, it’s going to cost. The best way to guess at just how much is to look at some trades that have actually occurred.
The Dolphins traded the No. 3 pick in 2021 to the 49ers for the No. 12 pick in that same draft, plus first- and third-rounders in 2022 and a first-rounder in 2023. San Francisco selected Trey Lance.
A cautionary tale for Raiders fans, but also a decent gauge of the cost of doing business.
Last year, the Texans went from No. 12 to No. 3. That’s almost exactly the move the Raiders would be looking to make, though it wasn’t for a quarterback.
Houston gave up the No. 12 and No. 33 pick last year in addition to first- and third-round selections this year to take Will Anderson.
The Panthers moved up to No. 1 in that same draft, at the cost of a star receiver in DJ Moore, plus the No. 9 and No. 61 picks last year, a first-rounder this year and a second-round pick in 2025.
That was for a highly coveted quarterback in Bryce Young, and it’s probably a starting point for what it could cost the Raiders.
So let’s say with no players it would take the No. 13 pick plus first-round picks in 2025 and 2026 and maybe another second-rounder to move up.
Is it worth it? That’s the question the Raiders’ front office, led by new general manager Tom Telesco, will have to answer.
It’s clear how many fans feel, but they don’t have to pay the bill or worry about Daniels becoming the next Lance.
This is the decision that has to be made very soon.
No bull
It’s been a week, and I still can’t shake the experience of watching UNLV football coach Barry Odom riding a bull at the South Point.
When I first heard from him that he would be participating in the charity event, I naturally assumed it would be either a very docile animal or some sort of aging bull whose better days were behind him.
Um, no.
That thing was legit.
Odom didn’t last long, but he earned full marks for effort and absolutely put himself at risk for serious injury.
It showed he is willing to do anything for his team and his program and goes a long way toward explaining why he has been so successful so quickly.
Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.
