No other choice but Pats

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Presumably, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has spent the past two weeks doing more than dodging questions about his team’s mysterious injury report and shady spy tactics.

Belichick is bland in interviews, and he might not be a model of morality. But with two weeks to prepare for a big game, it’s tough to bet against the NFL’s sharpest coach.

The unbeaten Patriots are 12-point favorites over the New York Giants today in Super Bowl XLII at Glendale, Ariz. The line opened at 131/2 at most Las Vegas sports books.

Vegas Insider handicapper Jamie Tursini works off a set of power ratings that make New England a 141/2-point favorite.

"I played New England minus-12, and that’s getting great value crossing the key numbers of 13 and 14," Tursini said.

"I am amazed at how the national media and ESPN has been able to convince the public that this will be a close game. Many even have New York winning this one. Good for Patriots backers."

Two months ago, the futures line on the Super Bowl had the AFC team — obviously projected to be the Patriots — favored by as many as 16 points over the NFC.

But New England’s offensive production steadily declined, and the day after the AFC Championship Game, quarterback Tom Brady was seen in a walking boot to protect his injured right ankle.

"I’m not concerned with Brady’s high ankle sprain," Tursini said. "His actions throughout the two weeks leading up to the game are what’s important. He would not have been spotted anywhere except the trainer’s room if there was reason to be concerned."

The Patriots started 8-0 against the spread and averaged 41.4 points per game during that stretch. They slipped to 2-6 against the spread and averaged 32.3 points over the next eight games.

In the playoffs, when weather conditions worsened, the Patriots failed to cover both games and averaged 26 points. Randy Moss has just two receptions and Brady has thrown three interceptions in the postseason.

In Week 17, New England had to overcome a fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Giants 38-35 at New York. The Giants have won 10 consecutive road games and rolled through the NFC with postseason victories at Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay.

None of those factors cause Tursini (vegasinsider.com) to back off the Patriots.

"In their Week 17 matchup, the final score means very little to me," he said. "When the Patriots decided to play with meaning, they erased a 12-point second-half deficit by scoring 22 straight points in a 15-minute stretch against a Giants defense playing great. The Giants scored a meaningless touchdown with just over a minute to play."

The Giants’ strength is their defensive line, anchored by Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Whether they can pressure Brady is a different story.

"When thinking about the Giants’ chances to keep this close, their pass rush comes to mind. Arguably, they have the best pass-rushing front four in the NFL," Tursini said. "But dating back to their meeting against the Patriots, they’ve sacked the quarterback only four times in four games.

"New England has the best pass-blocking offensive line that I’ve ever seen. They literally have given Tom Brady six to eight seconds of protection throughout the season."

If New York defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo tries a blitzing scheme when his unit can’t maintain a consistent rush, Tursini said "that will bury an average Giants secondary even more."

The edge in the running game could go to the Giants, with their tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, but that aspect of their attack might also suffer if the Patriots take an early lead.

New York’s top playmaker, wide receiver Plaxico Burress, is likely to see double coverage most of the game, which could force quarterback Eli Manning out of his comfort zone.

"Offensively, the Giants just don’t have what it takes to keep up," Tursini said. "Burress is a good wideout, but he’s not a game-breaker. This is where Belichick’s mastery comes into play.

"In the three Super Bowls the Patriots have won, they succeeded in targeting one offensive player and reducing his effectiveness. Against the Rams, it was running back Marshall Faulk. Against the Panthers, it was wideout Steve Smith. Against the Eagles, it was running back Brian Westbrook. Here it will be Burress.

"If the Giants fall behind early, the run will be abandoned, and that plays into the hands of the ball-hawking secondary of the Patriots."

New England has won each of its three Super Bowls by three points. Tursini anticipates a much bigger margin against New York.

"I expect about a 20-point win for the Patriots," he said.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2907.