Matching up Super Bowl LIII between Rams, Patriots
Who: Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
When: 3:30 p.m. Sunday
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV/Radio: KLAS-8; KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)
Line: Patriots -2½; total 56½
Outlook: So about that part of only becoming aware of our age at exceptional moments … this would qualify for the main Super Bowl characters. Bill Belichick is 66 and Tom Brady 41, the coach and quarterback of the Patriots making their ninth appearance in the season’s final game with the franchise and seeking a sixth ring together. Sean McVay is 33 and Jared Goff 24, counterparts with the Rams and owners of zero Super Bowl trips and jewelry. Countless other supporting actors will play parts on both sides in the NFL’s most fan-friendly stadium. Here’s how A Game for the Ages just might play out …
When the Rams have the ball: Brian Billick was the coach in Baltimore for nine seasons, won a Super Bowl in his time with the Ravens and was pretty clear on his thinking when it came to which team might prevail Sunday: “Mark my words,” he said, “if Monday morning comes and we are talking about the Rams being Super Bowl champions, Todd Gurley had a huge game.” It might seem simple — the most talented running back in the game having an impact on its outcome — but given Gurley hasn’t been 100 percent and was passed over for C.J. Anderson in the NFC championship game, nothing is certain. You figure Belichick in two weeks of preparation will have found something to disrupt the play-action preference of the Rams and Goff, which means Gurley at his best — he led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns this season and was third in yards at 1,251 — could prove Billick correct. Nobody in the league run blocks better than the Rams, and they need another such effort to win this one.
When the Patriots have the ball: Those surrounding Brady might not have the overall skill of past Super Bowl offenses for the Patriots, but never underestimate the importance of having been here, done that, lots of bling for the guy making throws. Few quarterbacks get the ball out of their hands quicker than Brady, which could be a good thing to avoid the potent rush of the Rams and a not-so-good thing if Los Angeles defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is on his game when disguising coverages. Rob Gronkowski might be headed for retirement after the game, but for now the Patriots tight end appears as healthy and capable as he has been in some time. Julien Edelman must solve the coverage of Nickell Robey-Coleman, which means Edelman better duck if running an out pattern late in the game and New England trying to secure a win. The Patriots do as good a job as any other team attacking an opponent’s weaknesses, and Brady, Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have had ample time to discover where those lie with the Rams.
Key matchup: Patriots offensive line vs. Rams defensive line. This is it. This is where someone will win or lose the Super Bowl. If the talented front of Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers can’t apply enough pressure on Brady and force him into third-and-long and perhaps a few costly throws, another ring for the greatest of all quarterbacks becomes a far more likely conclusion. Hard part for the Rams is, New England counters with one of the NFL’s finest offensive lines. Brady has yet to be sacked these playoffs. By the way — the Rams are 18-0 when Donald records a sack. When he doesn’t, they usually lose.
Possible unsung hero for Patriots: James White. It’s true rookie running back Sony Michel has been a pleasant surprise and will see his share of carries, but consider: White is second on the team with 751 yards receiving, had three touchdowns in a Super Bowl win against the Falcons two years ago and the Rams have been known to struggle covering guys out of the backfield (see Alvin Kamara in the NFC championship game). Brady loves involving those who have proven their worth in the biggest games. White is such an option.
Possible unsung hero for Rams: Goff. How can a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl be considered unsung? When it’s this quarterback. His coach might believe in him, but it doesn’t appear many others outside the Rams’ locker room do, still perhaps seeing more of the No. 1 overall pick who went 0-7 as a starter his rookie year instead of the one who led clutch fourth-quarter comebacks in the latter stages of this season. Is he merely a system quarterback reliant on McVay’s skill as a coach to succeed, or is there more to Goff? If it means winning Sunday, we’re not sure he cares all that much.
Key stat: 58. The combined number of turnovers the Rams (30) and Patriots (28) forced this season, ranking third and fifth among NFL teams. But both teams have taken care of the ball during the playoffs, with the Rams committing one turnover and New England two.
Did you know?: Brady and Goff have managed just three touchdown passes between them in these playoffs, the first Super Bowl since 1971 in which the quarterbacks have entered the game with fewer than a combined four.
Something to watch: If the Rams are leading after three quarters, some in-game wagering might be a smart call. They are 21-0 under McVay when leading after 45 minutes. Of course, New England is 16-0 when leading after one quarter since the start of 2017, so you could be making bets both ways all afternoon.
Quotable: “Playing in (the Super Bowl), you have the two best teams, and you fight it out and just one team wins and there’s no do-overs. There isn’t any retakes or Hollywood scripts or anything. This is live bullets, and we’ve got to go out there and get the job done under pressure.” — Brady.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 21.
