It’s (almost) unanimous: Patriots win
During the majority of the two-week countdown to Super Bowl XLII, the consensus line has been New England minus-12, with a total of 541/2. The usual scenario that plays out is most of the money wagered pours in over the final three days leading up to kickoff.
The early support for the underdog New York Giants has held up nicely, but speculation is that Patriots money could come into play in a big way today.
At long last it’s time to play the game. But wait, because from an oddsmaking perspective, the game already has been played. When looking at the multitude of wagers available on the Super Bowl, you can develop the game’s box score — based on the point spread, total and proposition wagers — before the Patriots and Giants even take the field.
In a perfect oddsmaking world, based on the Las Vegas Sports Consultants send-out number, the projections of players and the power ratings for both teams, we can see how the game hypothetically will be played (see chart).
With New England poised to finish an unbeaten season, it’s fashionable to compare eras and great teams. LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi said there is no comparison when it comes to the Patriots and 1972 Miami Dolphins.
“In the world we live in, the Patriots are far and away the best we’ve seen,” Sinisi said. “Miami was actually a one-point underdog against the Washington Redskins’ ‘over the hill gang’ (in Super Bowl VII). Miami was a very solid team but not one of the best of all time.”
We all hope for a competitive and entertaining game, but a New England boat-race would suit me. It finally would signal the end of the 1972 Dolphins’ endless annual chatter.
Let’s hope Patriots running back Laurence Maroney doesn’t turn into a Mercury Morris bullhorn 35 years from now. If he does, I’ll turn off my hearing aid and tune him out.
As for my selection, New England can revert to its dominant ways in a climate-controlled environment. With two weeks to prepare, Bill Belichick rates a decided edge over Tom Coughlin.
If the Giants find themselves in chase mode, they’ll be able to move the football but not be able to keep pace with the consistently explosive New England offense. Look for outstanding execution from the Patriots and a flea-flicker touchdown pass.
I believe New England will score early and often, achieving perfection in impressive fashion, 42-17.
Here are opinions from Las Vegas sports book directors:
• John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas: Patriots, 38-10.
• Fred Crespi, Palms: Patriots, 45-17.
• Chuck Esposito, Caesars Palace: Patriots, 31-13.
• Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton: Patriots, 41-24.
• Art Manteris, Station Casinos: Patriots, 37-20.
• Jason McCormick, Red Rock: Patriots, 37-28.
• Patrick Rethore, Stratosphere: Patriots, 31-21.
• Micah Roberts, Sunset Station: Patriots, 49-20.
• Robert Walker, MGM Mirage: Patriots, 55-27.
• And more opinions from LVSC oddsmakers: Jason Been, Patriots, 38-17; John Harper, Patriots, 41-17; Dan O’Brien, Patriots, 56-23; Scott Ramsey, Giants, 28-27; Mike Seba, Patriots, 37-24; Tony Sinisi, Patriots, 37-24; Sean Van Patten, Patriots, 35-21; Kenny White, Patriots, 31-21.
It should be noted that Ramsey, the only person to pick the underdog to win outright, is a Giants fan.
There obviously is a strong opinion and rooting interest for the Patriots.
Despite the many selections that seem to favor the game going over the total, the book, in all likelihood, would love to see this go under the total.
Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on “Sportsbook Radio,” weekdays at 4 p.m. on KENO-AM (1460).
PROJECTED BOX SCORE
Patriots 34
Giants 20
New York 3 7 3 7 — 20
New England 7 10 7 10 — 34
First Quarter
NE–R.Moss 32 pass from Brady (Gostkowski kick), 6:30.
NYG–FG Tynes 34, 3:20.
Second Quarter
NYG–Jacobs 1 run (Tynes kick), 13:13.
NE–Welker 11 pass from Brady (Gostkowski kick), 5:43.
NE–FG Gostkowski 44, 0:00.
Third Quarter
NE–Watson 8 pass from Brady (Gostkowski kick), 9:06.
NYG–FG Tynes 31, 3:20.
Fourth Quarter
NE–FG Gostkowski 44, 11:53.
NYG–Burress 17 pass from Manning (Tynes kick), 7:04.
NE–Maroney 3 run (Gostkowski kick), 4:24.
A–79,110.
NYG NE
FIRST DOWNS 19 24
Rushing 5 6
Passing 11 16
Penalty 3 2
3RD-DOWN EFFICIENCY 5-13 6-12
4TH-DOWN EFFICIENCY 0-0 1-1
TOTAL NET YARDS 339 401
Total Plays 66 64
Average Gain 5.1 6.3
NET YARDS RUSHING 109 104
Rushes 28 26
Average per Rush 3.9 4.0
NET YARDS PASSING 238 306
Completed-Attempted 20-36 25-36
Yards per Pass 6.6 8.5
Sacked-Yards Lost 2-9 2-8
Had Intercepted 1 1
PUNTS-AVERAGE 5-39.6 3-40.6
RETURN YARDAGE 218 161
Punt Returns-Yards 1-8 2-20
Kickoff Returns-Yards 7-196 5-125
Int. Returns-Yards 1-14 1-16
PENALTIES-YARDS 5-39 5-41
FUMBLES-LOST 1-1 1-0
TIME OF POSSESSION 28:35 31:25
INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
RUSHING–N.Y. Giants, Jacobs 17-65, Bradshaw 10-42, Manning 1-2. New England, Maroney 21-86, Faulk 3-13, Evans 1-4, Brady 1-1.
PASSING–N.Y. Giants, Manning 20-36-238-1-1. New England, Manning 25-36-306-3-1.
RECEIVING–N.Y. Giants, Burress 5-72, Toomer 4-60, Smith 3-31, Boss 2-18, Jacobs 2-16, Bradshaw 2-12, S.Moss 1-16, Tyree 1-13. New England, R.Moss 6-89, Welker 7-76, Faulk 5-38, Watson 2-22, Stallworth 3-44, Gaffney 2-23.
