Curb expectations to dodge disappointment

Don’t Sunday mornings during football season feel like Christmas morning? Or, in my case, all eight mornings of Hanukkah?

The anticipation, the countdown, the nervous, anxious energy — if you have a decent chance of winning, you feel it all. If you’re projected to win by a landslide, it’s even better. You just want to tear away at the wrapping and watch the presents pour out.

That bike never has looked so shiny, that guitar so cool.

And then, inevitably, comes the lump of coal. Or, in my case, four pairs of knitted socks. Hence, the danger of buying into those projections.

Folks, it’s time we all managed our expectations a bit. So what if Tony Romo had thrown 11 touchdowns against just three interceptions heading into Monday’s game. He’s Tony Romo! He was bound to come down to earth some day. Granted, I didn’t think he’d crash so hard, but he’s still TONY ROMO!

Projected at 24 points in one league, Romo got me 12.

Same goes for Terrell Owens, who was tabbed for 16 points last week and had two. Same for Randy Moss, projected at 17 points, finishing with four.

No receiver in the league can throw to himself, and with rushing offenses in a league-wide transformation, even top-tier running backs no longer are guarantees. The surest bets these days are quarterbacks, but sometimes even they flame out — thanks, Romo.

So ignore the projections and try to build a better team around your stars.

The lumps of coal won’t seem so bad.

The knitted socks? Still bad.

MONEYMAKERS

Top-tier players who should perform to their value:

• Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants running back vs. Atlanta: All that potential, all that hope, all that hype died down when Jacobs was injured in Week 2. Now he’s healthy, backup Derrick Ward might be sidelined, and the once-reliable Falcons run defense is susceptible. With 20 to 25 carries, Jacobs should build on Week 5’s 100-yard, one-touchdown performance.

• Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia running back vs. New York Jets: My on-again, off-again relationship with Westbrook continues. I still never will draft him — those pesky injuries infuriate me — but he’s certainly a talented runner. With a favorable matchup coming off a bye week, Westbrook looks like a sure thing, especially in the passing game.

• Ronnie Brown, Miami running back vs. Cincinnati: Last week, I thought Brown’s magnificent run was over. I was wrong. Brown put up another great round of stats in Week 5 — 153 total yards, one touchdown — and he has assumed the role that LaDainian Tomlinson had when new Dolphins coach Cam Cameron was with the Chargers.

WINGMEN

Midround picks who should feast on favorable matchups:

• Braylon Edwards, Cleveland wide receiver vs. Miami: It’s taken me awhile to come around on the Browns’ offense, but I’m falling for Edwards. His talent never has been in question; he just hasn’t been surrounded by much in Cleveland. With a competent quarterback in the mix — Derek Anderson is no Tom Brady, but he’s no Charlie Frye, either — Edwards should continue to shine.

• Laveranues Coles, New York Jets wide receiver vs. Philadelphia: While I like Jerricho Cotchery a lot, Coles remains the deep man in New York. That’s not saying much, with Chad "I throw like a 6-year-old girl" Pennington under center. But against an Eagles defense that can be exploited deep, Coles could snare a bomb or two.

• Todd Heap, Baltimore tight end vs. St. Louis: This slowly is becoming the "Year of the Tight End" — Jeremy Shockey’s flop notwithstanding. Heap has been lost in the shuffle behind Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, despite putting up standard Heap numbers. Heap missed Week 5 with a minor hamstring injury but is good to go.

BANK-BREAKERS

Top-tier guys who won’t perform up to their value:

• Shaun Alexander, Seattle running back vs. New Orleans: The loss of guard Steve Hutchinson hurt last year. The loss of fullback Mack Strong to retirement will doom Alexander even more. He could put up decent stats against the Saints’ defense, but don’t expect anything near a top-five performance.

• Antonio Gates, San Diego tight end vs. Oakland: The Raiders have a good, quick corps of linebackers with Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard leading the way. Gates will put up relatively good numbers but won’t bust out for a monster game.

• New England defense vs. Dallas: Universally the third-ranked defense coming into the season, the Patriots unit has lived up to the billing. I expect the Dallas matchup to be a high-scoring affair, which could lead to New England interceptions but also to negative points for the unit.

QUICK PICK SIX

The best bets for the week, based on value:

Heap, QB Damon Huard (vs. Cincinnati); QB Derek Anderson (vs. Miami); WR Dwayne Bowe (vs. Cincinnati); WR Patrick Crayton (vs. New England); Minnesota defense (vs. Chicago).

Jon Gold is a Review-Journal sportswriter with 10 fantasy football teams. His column is published Friday. He can be reached at jgold@reviewjournal.com.