Contrarian bettors have dream weekend

Many people know yours truly as a contrarian bettor, but that might be taken to the extreme this week.

It’s Week 17 in the NFL, and, as usual, a few games involve teams that need to win to make the playoffs or improve their seeding, and in all cases they’re either going against teams that are locked into their playoff spots and expected to rest starters, or else they’re playing against teams that have been eliminated and are playing out the string.

The oddsmakers have adjusted the spreads on those games, and the public still is steaming the lines on those teams as they expect them to be extra motivated.

However, a lot of funny things happen in Week 17. Teams that are resting for the playoffs often win, and teams in must-win situations are there because they haven’t won consistently throughout the season. They’re not that good or they wouldn’t be in these spots, and now they’re being asked to cover inflated lines — and three (Saints, Titans and Chargers) are being asked to do it on the road.

Here are my five plays, with lines as of Saturday night (home teams in CAPS):

• Cowboys (+9) over REDSKINS: Washington clinches the NFC wild card with a win, but the Redskins are 2-5-1 against the spread as a favorite this year. Dallas coach Wade Phillips has said he plans to play his starters and play to win, and Tony Romo will try to work on his timing with Terry Glenn, who is returning from injury. Even if the Cowboys’ backups play most of the game, the Redskins offense is 16th in the league and not likely to dominate the No. 8-ranked Cowboys defense, even with backups playing.

• BEARS (+2) over Saints: Before the Redskins beat the Vikings last Sunday, this line was Bears minus-2 at the Las Vegas Hilton, and that result didn’t warrant this change. The Saints are a long shot to make the postseason as they need the Redskins and Vikings to lose afternoon games, but I’m thinking they’ll be ousted before those games kick off. The Bears showed last week in their 35-7 whipping of the motivated Packers that they’re playing hard. And it didn’t help the Saints last week when they lost a must-win game to the Eagles that greatly would have improved their wild-card chances.

• 49ers (+111/2) over BROWNS: This line, which opened with the Browns minus-91/2, was as high as 12 at some books as of Saturday night and might climb more. The 49ers are also-rans that haven’t packed their bags. They’ve won two straight over the Bengals and Tampa Bay. Both were at home, but the effort is there, and now they go against Cleveland’s 31st-ranked defense.

• COLTS (+5) over Titans: This line has come down from 61/2. The Titans are another team that finds it hard to win by margins (3-5 ATS as a favorite, including last week’s 10-6 noncovering win over the Jets). The Colts are talking about wanting to stay sharp, and Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning might look for some work together.

• RAIDERS (+8) over Chargers: The Chargers have been hot, but I’m counting on Oakland to show pride like it did in its last two home games in which it whipped the Broncos as a 41/2-point underdog and stayed within a TD in covering against the Colts. The Chargers won in routs their last two home games, but in their most recent road game they played poorly before rallying and winning in overtime.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 40-39-1

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.