Bye weeks create unique challenge for oddsmakers

How often do you hear or even evoke the phrase, “I need a vacation to recover from vacation?” The NFL’s in-season version of a mental and physical health break is now cycling through the weekly schedule on a regular basis.

Just what does the bye week mean to the oddsmakers and handicappers, who are trying to sort through the menu of games that feature teams returning to action off a two-week respite?

Let’s start with information fresh at our fingertips. The Jaguars, Titans, Saints and Redskins were the first quartet to take a break this year. They got back in the fray last Sunday and went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread, as only New Orleans came up short with its calamitous early season picking right up where it had left off.

Of interest, all four of those games went under the total. Washington can’t be blamed for that, as it put up 34 points on the Lions, who stumbled their way through a three-point outing.

In 2006, teams off a bye were 18-14 straight up, with favorites covering the spread at that same ratio.

But looking back, there were a number of compelling upsets recorded by big underdogs last season, all playing on the road off a bye.

The Packers won at Miami 34-24 as 6-point underdogs, and Minnesota knocked off Seattle 31-13 while getting 61/2 points on the road.

The double-digit ‘dogs were even more impressive. New England was a 101/2-point favorite over the visiting Jets, who had two weeks to prepare, and the Jets pulled off the 17-14 upset.

Finally, the Miami Dolphins cruised into Chicago with 131/2 points in their pocket. The Dolphins blew away the Bears 31-13, one of only two losses suffered by Chicago in the regular season.

All four teams competing today off a bye week are playing on the road, with the Bengals and Eagles favored and the Vikings and Raiders getting a healthy amount of points.

In the past five years, here’s how these teams have fared straight up following the bye week: Oakland 1-4, Cincinnati 2-3, Minnesota 4-1 and Philadelphia 5-0. To take it a step further, the Eagles have won all eight games played off a bye week since Andy Reid became coach in 1999.

From the oddsmakers’ perspective, the bye week poses a unique challenge. In some instances, teams can be out of sync, with the change of their normal routine causing an element of rust and sloppiness.

Mike Seba of Las Vegas Sports Consultants is of the belief that the benefits far outweigh the negatives when it comes to making the line for teams coming off the shelf.

“So much of it depends on the particular matchup, but for the most part, the healing process and extra preparation time for a specific opponent promotes an overall improvement in performance,” Seba said.

LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi takes the stance that the time of year is a strong component to consider when determining the effects of the bye week.

“I’m inclined to put much more stock in the bye week in the latter stages of the season,” Sinisi said. “I honestly don’t think it has that much credibility right now. In fact, I can see it being a detriment, especially when teams have been playing well.”

Seba and his counterparts will give just as much consideration to teams approaching a bye week when they huddle late this afternoon to create their send-out lines for next week’s slate of games.

Of the four teams back in action today, only Oakland was a winner two weeks ago. Teams that are off today went a combined 2-4 last week. The list of teams playing today who are off next week includes Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay and San Diego.

In relation to the wagering line, the underdogs through five weeks of the season still lead the way 42-29-5, while totals have been virtually split down the middle, with games going under narrowly leading the way at 39-37.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on KENO-AM (1460).