Buy, buy, buy value with ‘dogs

Last week in the NFL was ugly for underdog bettors, as favorites won 14 of the 16 games and went 12-4 against the spread. I was among those ‘dogs licking my wounds with a 1-4 record.

The Chalk Express continued to roll on Thanksgiving Day as the Packers, Cowboys and Colts covered as the betting favorites. The sports books, who usually have more liability on straight bets with the favorites — and especially on parlays — have been giving back a lot of the profits they’ve accumulated all season, while the professional bettors, who tend to back underdogs, have taken a hit to their bankrolls.

But there’s a silver lining for the books as well as contrarian bettors such as myself: The public is flush with cash and armed with the positive reinforcement that the road to riches is paved by backing the “better teams.” Frankly, the wise guys know there has to be occasional weeks like this. If the public always lost, they would change their betting habits or stop betting altogether.

Looking at the lines this week, we can see that the prices on favorites have been inflated to reflect the amount of money expected to be bet on them. On Wall Street, they call this an over-correction of the market. It’s time to buy, buy, buy on the value stocks, which are the underdogs.

I have five of them, four today and one Monday. Lines are as of Saturday night (home teams in CAPS).

• Bills (+8) over JAGUARS: This spread was Jacksonville minus-7 in the advance lines at the Las Vegas Hilton, but bettors since have steamed it to 8. The Bills need this game to get back in the wild-card hunt and can stay within a touchdown of the Jaguars, who will be content to grind out a close win.

• Redskins (+31/2) over BUCCANEERS: Similarly, this line wouldn’t be more than 3 points if not for the Bucs’ 31-7 win over the Falcons last week. On the flip side, the Redskins aren’t being given enough respect. These teams are similar — mediocre offenses, tough defenses — and should play a close game down to the wire, where the 31/2 could come in handy.

• 49ers (+101/2) over CARDINALS: Yes, the 49ers are pretty pathetic, losing eight straight games and averaging a league-low 11.3 points per game. Even so, the Cardinals shouldn’t be laying double digits to anyone, especially a team that beat them 23-20 in the season opener. The Cardinals are 7-3 against the spread this season, but they are 1-2 as a favorite.

• Eagles (+24) over PATRIOTS: Looking again at the advance lines at the Hilton as a barometer, this line was Pats minus-17 a week ago. Then, after they routed the Bills, it was reopened at minus-20 and promptly bet to minus-24. Part of this was due to Donovan McNabb being hurt and listed as doubtful, but I’m not so sure the Eagles are worse off with backup quarterback A.J. Feeley. The Eagles might not win, but there’s plenty of wiggle room with this overinflated line.

• Dolphins (+16) over STEELERS: In a week of surprisingly high lines, this one might take the cake. The Steelers have not played well the last two weeks. Even though the Dolphins are winless, they showed some fight in leading the Eagles most of the way last week, and I expect the same effort as they won’t want to be embarrassed on national television. The better team should prevail, but I’ll take the more than two-touchdown head start.

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

Season: 27-27-1

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.