Young Bucs in rally mode
In what has been a surprisingly successful season for Tampa Bay, quarterback Josh Freeman has led five fourth-quarter comebacks. The young Buccaneers need another late rally to reach the playoffs.
A lot needs to happen for Tampa Bay (8-6) to get a postseason opportunity, but the first step is simple. The Buccaneers must beat Seattle today, and Micah Roberts of VegasInsider.com recommends a bet on the Bucs as 6½-point home favorites.
Sadly, the Seahawks (6-8) also are playoff contenders, only because they are tied for the lead in the NFL’s worst division, the NFC West.
"Tampa Bay is hanging on to its playoff life by a thread, while Seattle is fighting for the division crown despite seemingly losing at every opportunity," Roberts said. "The Bucs have to win this game. The Seahawks could actually lose and still have a shot at the division with their Week 17 home matchup against the Rams on deck.
"Even though the Bucs have eight wins, they have not beat a team with a winning record. The Seahawks will be trying to win on one of the longest road trips any team in the NFL could make. West Coast teams traveling east are rarely a good bet, and that’s especially true with a Seattle team that routinely gets whacked by double digits. I’ll take Tampa Bay to win by 14."
Freeman, who has passed for 2,959 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season, has been efficient the past two weeks with 517 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Seattle, which ranks No. 29 in the league in defense and No. 27 in offense, does not fit the profile of a playoff team. Matt Hasselbeck has thrown 10 interceptions in his past four starts.
"The main reason for each team’s success and demise has been turnovers," said Roberts, a former sports book director. "Seattle gives the ball up frequently and is third-worst in the league with a minus-9 ratio, while the Bucs’ saving grace has been their plus-8 turnover ratio."
If San Francisco defeats St. Louis earlier today, this game will mean little to the Seahawks, who would win the NFC West by beating the Rams next week.
Nineteen teams still are in the hunt for the 12 playoff spots. Roberts credited NFL commissioner Roger Goodell "for making so many proactive changes in such a short time," one being a scheduling shift in December.
"Goodell’s greatest gift to the fans may be changing the late-season schedule to reflect more meaningful games," he said. "One of the most attractive betting opportunities features two teams vying for a playoff spot."
Roberts breaks down the rest of today’s Week 16 schedule:
■ Detroit at Miami (-3½): At 10-4 against the spread, the Lions are the NFL’s best cover team, and they also are on a two-game winning streak. The Dolphins are the league’s worst home team at 1-6 straight up. The only negative could be Shaun Hill starting at quarterback instead of Drew Stanton, who engineered Detroit’s past two wins. Because of the winning cohesion that might be gone with Stanton, I would lean to Miami. But I would be hard-pressed to bet on the Dolphins.
■ Washington at Jacksonville (-7): The Jaguars have been strong at home (5-2), and they have everything to play for. One concern is running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who’s listed as doubtful because of a right knee problem. But the question is, which Rex Grossman will show up for the Redskins? Will it be the bad Rex who was run out of Chicago or the good Rex who almost engineered a win at Dallas last week. It’s the same situation today with Washington as a 7-point underdog. I see another good game from Grossman. That makes taking the points attractive.
■ San Francisco at St. Louis (-2½): The Rams’ Sam Bradford already has played more games in a season than he ever has, and in his past two games he looked like a rookie quarterback for the first time. He threw four interceptions and had his lowest combined two-game passer rating of the season. In those games, which appeared to be do-or-die for St. Louis, Bradford was at the forefront of reasons why the team lost. The kid is running out of gas, so I’ll take the 49ers to win a close one.
■ New England (-7½) at Buffalo: Since losing at Cleveland in Week 9, the Patriots have reeled off six straight wins and scored more 30 points in each game. Tom Brady has not thrown an interception since Week 6 in a win over Baltimore. The Bills should be able to score some, but they won’t keep up. Look for this to be the largest margin of victory of the day.
■ New York Jets at Chicago (-1): Thanks to a spirited win by the Jets at Pittsburgh that ended a two-game slide, you get a chance to lay less than a field goal with the Bears at home. I’m not a big fan of Chicago’s scheme, but did the Jets show that much offensively last week to make us believe they are reborn from the team that couldn’t score a touchdown the previous two games? Mark Sanchez won’t be able to throw deep, and the running game still isn’t in shape. I’ll take the Bears with hopes quarterback Jay Cutler starts out well.
■ Baltimore (-3½) at Cleveland: I love that the Browns are competitive again and can pose a threat to the Ravens. Since a 28-10 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 6, the Browns have forced every team to play to their level by forcing the tempo. In the process they have played gritty football with a chance to win every game. Getting a field goal and hook appears to have value.
■ Tennessee at Kansas City (-5): After a six-game losing streak, the Titans rebounded last week with an offensive output similar to what we saw in big wins over the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys. The correlation looks to be having wideout Kenny Britt back healthy, as Britt was out for most of those six losses. This looks like a good money-line play on the underdog because of what recent AFC West leaders do in Week 16 — they lose.
■ Indianapolis (-3) at Oakland: Another correlation with a quarterback and a team playing well because of a single receiver is the Colts’ plight without Austin Collie. He has been Peyton Manning’s crutch while tight end Dallas Clark is out, and the Colts’ wins and Manning’s numbers reflect it. Collie had been banged up since Week 9, and Indianapolis went on to lose four of five games with Manning throwing 13 of his 15 interceptions on the season. Collie is out for the season, and the Raiders are playing well. I’ll take the points with the home team.
■ Houston (-2½) at Denver: Texans coach Gary Kubiak, the former heir apparent to Mike Shanahan in Denver, will be auditioning his game plan for Broncos owner Pat Bowlen, who now realizes after 11 losses that Shanahan’s competitive 9-7 teams weren’t that bad after all. Kubiak likely is to be dismissed after this season, but he should have a good plan put together to take down one of the league’s worst teams.
■ New York Giants at Green Bay (-3): If the Giants win, they’re in the playoffs. If the Packers win their next two, they are in. This is the jewel of the day with more on the line than any other game. The Packers have the advantage of being at home with quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning, while the Giants try to regroup from their meltdown last week. Will there be any lingering effects this week? It feels like there has to be a hangover. That was a must-win game for the division, and the Giants blew it horrifically. It’s a tough game to bet, but I’d take the Packers if forced to play it.
■ San Diego (-7½) at Cincinnati: The Bengals ended their 10-game slide last week with wideout Terrell Owens out of the lineup. Who can figure the Chargers out week to week? They are 2-4 on the road, where they have lost to teams similarly as bad as the Bengals. The Chargers rarely lose in December, and it’s a must-win spot for them, so I’ll look for a 10-point win.
■ Minnesota at Philadelphia (-14½): The Vikings have packed it in, getting blown out in their past two games. Joe Webb playing quarterback doesn’t inspire confidence in Minnesota, and facing a team that is clicking like the Eagles will make his play look worse than he is. I would feel comfortable laying up to 16 points with Philadelphia.
Compiled by Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans.
