When total is 80 or higher, ‘over’ wager no golden ticket
If you hang around Las Vegas sports books enough, you will hear a whole lot of crazy betting theories and mantras.
Some of the most entertaining, though perhaps not the most effective, will come from the mouths of guys who look like they haven’t left their seat since before Jameis Winston learned how to sign his name.
One of the first such betting axioms that stuck in my mind was from one such gentleman while I was still in school. In case there’s no statute of limitations on underage gambling, let’s say it was college.
While debating whether to bet the over in a game that had a total in the 60s on what undoubtedly at the time was a $2 eight-teamer, the older gentleman (who I thought was in his 70s, but may well have been like 44) offered some advice.
“Don’t be scared of high totals. They’re high for a reason,” he said. “When you see a number over 60, just bet it over.”
Of course, that’s hogwash.
But what about games set over 80? Those games must have such high totals for a reason. Maybe that’s the key number.
Turns out, not so much.
Saturday’s matchup between Baylor and West Virginia was the 12th time since 2005 a total closed over 80.
After the under 81.5 hit in West Virginia’s 41-27 upset victory, games with a closing total over 80 are now 6-6 over that span, according to SportsInsights.com.
Not surprisingly, Baylor has been involved in seven of those 12 games. So apparently, when the guy said those totals are “high for a reason,” that reason is Art Briles.
The Baylor coach couldn’t have been happy with his high-powered offense Saturday, though. Bryce Petty’s group scored its only points of the second half on a touchdown late in the third quarter to tie the game 27-27, but the Bears were shut out the rest of the way and fell from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay has been around the industry long enough to have heard just about every theory. One that he said has become popular, particularly on social media platforms such as Twitter, is that the best way to win money is just to blindly bet against the public.
“I understand where some of that is coming from, but it’s just not that easy,” Kornegay said. “I wish it were. The public can hit right around 50 percent, but I think people tend to forget when they’re right.”
Perhaps a more appropriate piece of advice would be to just bet on a Bill Snyder team anytime there’s a plus-sign next to it on the board.
Snyder took his Kansas State team into Norman and knocked off Oklahoma 31-30 as a 7-point underdog.
The Sooners were as much as a 12-point favorite early in the week, but money showed on the Wildcats, and with good reason.
Snyder is now 25-10 against the spread as an underdog since 2005, the third-best mark in college football, according to Bet Labs Software.
Of course, Kansas State was somewhat fortunate to get out of town with a win — and the cash for its money-line players — after Oklahoma’s Michael Hunnicutt missed a late 19-yard field goal.
There’s no such thing as a sure-thing field goal in college football. That’s why every Saturday one of the top trending topics on Twitter is “#collegekickers.”
Hunnicutt is good, though. Snyder may have said it best.
“The youngster that missed the field goal, he will go another hundred years without missing another field goal,” he said. “So we were just lucky. That happens.”
Obviously, that’s an exaggeration. Nobody stays around football for 100 years. Except Snyder.
It’s anybody’s guess how much longer Winston can stay around the college game with a new scandal seemingly every week, but the Florida State star keeps getting the job done on the field.
The Seminoles failed to cover the 9.5-point closing number, much less the much bigger spreads available over the past few weeks and months, but Winston was spectacular in the second half of a 31-27 win over Notre Dame in Saturday’s marquee game. Florida State survived when an Irish receiver decided to turn into an offensive lineman on a not-at-all controversial fourth-down play.
Florida State opened as a 24-point favorite in late July and was laying 13.5 early last week. The game came off the board amid speculation about Winston’s status for potential disciplinary reason, but was posted at minus-10 on Friday.
The number reached as low as minus-8 in some spots Saturday.
Though there was significant movement on those games and the Irish cover represented a loss for the books, Kornegay said there were few matchups on the board in which the house was exposed on one side or the other.
“There was nothing really to shake in our boots about. We had good two-way action on pretty much all of the games,” Kornegay said. “All the bigger games were well-balanced. The results coming in just kind of felt like a tug-of-war all day long. We’ll probably grind out a small profit.”
New Mexico bettors nearly had their profit ripped right out of their wallets.
The Lobos, who had been bet from plus-11.5 to plus-7.5, were down 35-31 with the ball in the closing seconds and hoping for a miracle at Air Force.
So New Mexico started with the laterals in hopes of someone breaking free and scoring a winning touchdown. Instead, the Lobos gave their backers ulcers.
Falcons defensive back Gavin McHenry came up with the ball and nearly scored for an Air Force cover, only to be tackled at the 1-yard line.
Such is the life of a bettor. Probably why that guy in the sports book looked so old.
Contact reporter Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com or 702-224-5509. Follow him on Twitter: @adamhilllvrj.
