Vols, Tide will produce points
If Tennessee junior quarterback Tyler Bray is an elite NFL prospect, as some say, this is his opportunity to prove it.
The Volunteers get their shot at top-ranked Alabama and the nation’s best defense today in Knoxville, Tenn.
Six of the past eight meetings between Tennessee and Alabama have gone under the total. But we should see points galore when this storied Southeastern Conference rivalry is renewed at Neyland Stadium.
All six of the Volunteers’ games this season have gone over the total, with an average combined score of 69.5 points per game.
In Tennessee’s loss at Mississippi State last week, the teams totaled 72 points. The Volunteers’ previous two games, against Georgia and Akron, produced 95 and 73 points.
Bray and the Crimson Tide’s A.J. McCarron are two of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, so both defenses will be tested.
Tennessee has NFL talent at the skill positions. Bray is inconsistent, but he has ideal size and arm strength to play at the next level. He has one of the nation’s premier set of wide receivers, including Cordarrelle Patterson, who is second in the SEC with 835 all-purpose yards. Justin Hunter is fourth in the conference with 497 receiving yards.
Even against the nation’s top defense, expect the Volunteers to score points. They average 38 and allow 31.5.
Alabama is going to gash Tennessee’s defense for at least 45 points. The Tide average 40.5 points and have an offensive line poised to maul the Volunteers’ front seven.
I made this total 61, and I’m bullish on betting “over” 55 points.
Four more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
■ NORTHWESTERN (+6½) over Nebraska – The Wildcats went into Lincoln last year and captured a 28-25 win. Northwestern is 4-0 straight up and against the spread at home, and Nebraska is winless in two road games. I made the Cornhuskers 3-point favorites, so there is line value on the home underdog.
■ Iowa State (+14) over OKLAHOMA STATE – I made the Cowboys 9-point favorites, so there is value with the underdog. The Cyclones have won outright at Iowa and Texas Christian. Oklahoma State struggled to get past an abysmal Kansas team by a 20-14 score last week.
■ Louisiana-Monroe (+3½) over WESTERN KENTUCKY – The Warhawks are 4-0 ATS on the road, winning outright at Arkansas and Middle Tennessee. Monroe is led by quarterback Colton Browning, who has 1,606 passing yards with a 14-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Browning also can get it done with his scrambling ability, as evidenced by 293 rushing yards.
■ Middle Tennessee (+19) over MISSISSIPPI STATE – This is a classic look-ahead spot for the Bulldogs, who next play at Alabama. The Blue Raiders already have a blowout win at Georgia Tech on their resume, and I expect them to give Mississippi State fits.
Last week: 3-1 against the spread
Season: 23-8
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
